* Oil prices drop 3%, extending previous session's heavy
losses
* Al Arabiya reports possible easing of US blockade
* Analysts warn prices could rebound if conflict
escalates again
* Iran's oil production likely down by around 400,000 bpd
- US energy secretary Chris Wright
(Changes dateline, byline, updates prices, adds analyst
comment, bullet)
By Siddharth Cavale
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 3% on
Thursday, bouncing off session lows in volatile trade but
staying down about 3%, keeping Brent below $100 a barrel on
hopes that a U.S.-Iran peace deal could bring a gradual
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures were down $3.21, or 3.17%, at
$98.06 a barrel at 11:21 a.m. ET (1521 GMT). U.S. West Texas
Intermediate declined $3.15, or around 3.31%, at $91.93.
Trading was volatile, with both benchmarks trading in a
range of up 1% to down 5.5% from the previous close. Both
benchmarks slumped more than 7% on Wednesday, hitting two-week
lows on optimism over a possible end to the Middle East
conflict.
The U.S. and Iran are edging toward a limited, temporary
agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said on
Thursday, with a draft framework that would stop the fighting
but leave the most contentious issues unresolved and center on a
short-term memorandum rather than a comprehensive peace deal.
Analysts also flagged a report from Saudi Arabia's Al
Arabiya news channel that said understandings have been reached
to ease the U.S. blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz, and another by Israel's Channel 12 that
said Iran had agreed to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched
uranium to a third country. Reuters could not immediately verify
either report.
Skepticism, however, remained over their credibility.
"It remains far from clear that there is any material
movement toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or if we are
instead stuck in a rebranded 'ceasefire with no oil' purgatory
for the time being," RBC analyst Helima Croft wrote in a note.
SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye said a confirmed deal would
probably take Brent back into the $80-$90 price range quickly
but a breakdown in talks or a Trump pivot back to strikes,
however, would immediately push prices north of $120 a barrel.
While a signed memorandum of understanding might reduce the
risk premium in the paper market, it would not have much
immediate impact on the high premiums for physical crudes, he
said, adding that it would take weeks or months for the market
to normalise after an agreement.
On the supply front, Iran appears to have cut back oil
production by 400,000 barrels per day and is likely to reduce it
further as its storage units fill, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris
Wright said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday.
A Chinese-owned oil products tanker was attacked near the Strait
of Hormuz on Monday, Chinese media outlet Caixin reported,
marking the first time a Chinese oil vessel has been attacked.
Earlier in the week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
urged China to intensify its diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran
to open the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, adding
that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi
Jinping will discuss the subject when they meet next week.
Fallout from the Iran war was a main topic at the Southeast
Asian bloc ASEAN meetings on Thursday, with renewed calls for a
united front in the face of serious challenges for its fuel
import-dependent economies. ASEAN leaders will on Friday call
for good-faith negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and a halt
in hostilities, according to a working draft of a statement seen
by Reuters.