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Oil prices build on last week's strength as supply risks rise
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Oil prices build on last week's strength as supply risks rise
Mar 18, 2024 12:50 AM

NEW DELHI, March 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up in

Asian trade on Monday, extending gains from last week of nearly

4% on the view that supply was tightening, with the risks

heightened by further attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Brent crude oil futures for May delivery climbed 47

cents, or 0.5%, to $85.81 a barrel by 0720 GMT. The April

contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 49

cents, or 0.6%, at $81.53. The more active May delivery contract

for WTI traded 50 cents, or 0.6%, higher at $81.08 per barrel.

"The strikes on Russian refineries added $2-$3 per barrel of

risk premium to crude last week, which remains in place as we

start this week with more attacks over the weekend," said

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda

Insights.

But for the next substantial move up or down, crude will

await fresh signals, Hari added.

On Saturday, one of the strikes sparked a brief fire at the

Slavyansk refinery in Kasnodar, which processes 8.5 million

metric tons of crude oil a year, or 170,000 barrels per day.

A Reuters analysis found the attacks have idled around 7% of

Russian refining capacity in the first quarter. The refining

complexes process and export crude varieties to several markets

including China and India.

In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu confirmed on Sunday he will proceed with plans to push

into Gaza's Rafah enclave where more than 1 million displaced

people are sheltering, defying pressure from Israel's allies.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the step would make regional

peace "very difficult".

This week, investors are keeping watch on the outcome of the

U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday.

That will bring more clarity on the timing of interest rate

cuts, Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.

The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged this month, while

the possibility of an interest rate cut at the June meeting "is

now a coin flip," Sycamore said.

Lower interest rates would stimulate demand in the U.S., the

world's biggest oil consumer, supporting oil prices.

Both benchmark oil contracts posted gains last week despite

a dip on Friday. Oil been rangebound for much of the last month,

but on Thursday a bullish demand report from the International

Energy Agency sent prices rising to their highest level since

November.

The agency, which represents industrialised countries, had

strengthened its demand outlook for the fourth time since

November as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea drove crude and fuel

carriers to divert, reducing the oil accessible to users. For

the first time, IEA also predicted a slight supply deficit this

year, instead of a surplus.

U.S. fuel demand also supported prices as refineries

completed some projects.

As of Friday's close, Brent and WTI futures were up 11% and

13%, respectively, in 2024.

(Reporting by Mohi Narayan and Colleen Howe; Editing by Jamie

Freed and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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