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Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on
Wednesday
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OPEC+ considering delaying oil output increase, sources
say
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Analysts see oil prices as undervalued
(Updates with latest prices, background)
By Emily Chow
SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on
Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a
ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah and Sunday's OPEC+
meeting, in which the group could delay a planned increase to
oil output.
Brent crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, to
$73.10 a barrel by 0750 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude was up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.03.
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed
to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah came
into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted the agreement
brokered by the U.S. and France.
The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across
the Israeli-Lebanese border, which has killed thousands of
people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.
"Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire
will be observed," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS
Trading, part of Nissan Securities.
"We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a
barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the Northern
Hemisphere's winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas
production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the
U.S. and demand trends in China."
Heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ) and
Morgan Stanley ( MS ) said that oil prices are undervalued,
citing a market deficit and risk to Iranian supply from possible
sanctions under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Sources from the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia have
said the producer group is discussing a further delay to the oil
output increase that was due to start in January.
OPEC+, which meets on Dec. 1 to decide policy for early
2025, pumps about half the world's oil and had planned to roll
back oil production cuts gradually over 2024 and 2025. But a
slowdown in Chinese and global demand, as well as rising output
outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.
"Our longstanding base case has been that OPEC+ defers the
tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025," Citi Research
analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in
April instead of January.
"From the producer group's point of view, holding off the
unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced,
via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing
barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion."
In America, President-elect Trump said that he would impose
a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico
and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade
penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stocks fell and fuel inventories
rose last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing API
figures.
Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended
Nov. 22, exceeding analyst expectations of a drop of about
600,000 barrels.