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Oil steady as investors weigh up extended OPEC+ supply cuts
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Oil steady as investors weigh up extended OPEC+ supply cuts
Jun 3, 2024 5:34 AM

LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little

changed on Monday as investors digested the complex deal

brokered by producer group OPEC+ to extend various layers of

output cuts, much of them into 2025.

Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 9

cents at $81.02 a barrel by 1209 GMT. U.S. West Texas

Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery

slipped 14 cents to $76.85.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and

allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, are currently

reducing output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day

(bpd), equating to about 5.7% of global demand.

The group agreed on Sunday to extend much of its cuts well

into 2025 to support the market in the face of softer than

expected demand growth, protracted high interest rates in key

Western economies, worries over slow demand growth in top oil

importer China and rising non-OPEC production.

The deal includes extending 3.66 million bpd of cuts that

were due to expire at the end of 2024 until the end of 2025.

It also prolongs 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts that were

to expire at the end of this month but will now be kept in place

until the end of September before they are phased out gradually

by September 2025.

"Clearly the challenge for the group will be to hold or cut

back if demand doesn't prove as robust and we believe their

strong cohesion should allow for greater flexibly, if needed,"

J.P. Morgan analyst Christyan Malek said.

Some analysts described the group's decision as

incrementally bearish for oil prices, given it was always

planned that the 2.2 million bpd of extra cuts would be unwound

gradually.

"The communication of a surprisingly detailed default plan

to unwind extra cuts makes it harder to maintain low production

if the market turns out softer than bullish OPEC expectations,"

Goldman Sachs analysts said.

These eight core members account for only about 30% of

global oil output, making it harder for the group to convince

markets that it is able to support prices when the proportion of

output it has effective control over is limited, said Callum

Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec.

"Even achieving this (deal) has come at the cost of agreeing

to output increases in 2025 on top of its plan to unwind the

voluntary cuts. It is not clear the additional supply will find

a home next year," he said.

The front-month contract for Brent, for instance, has fallen

by a few dollars since Reuters first reported such an OPEC+ deal

was in the works last week.

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