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Pound hits four-month high on upbeat British GDP, hawkish chief economist
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Pound hits four-month high on upbeat British GDP, hawkish chief economist
Jul 11, 2024 12:37 AM

LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Sterling rose to

its highest in four months on Thursday, after data showed the UK

economy grew more quickly than expected in May, potentially

lowering the chances of an August rate cut.

Britain's economic output rose by 0.4% in May, data from the

Office for National Statistics showed, beating the 0.2% increase

forecast by a Reuters poll of economists.

The pound rose by as much as 0.12% to $1.2865, its highest

since March 8, building on a 0.48% increase in the

previous day.

Sterling also strengthened against the euro,

with the common currency down around 0.1% to its weakest in

nearly a month at 84.21 pence.

"This snapshot of an economy growing a bit faster than

forecast, could make Bank of England policymakers that bit more

reticent about voting for an interest rate cut on 1 August,"

said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves

Lansdown.

Futures markets show traders attach a roughly 50/50 chance

of the Bank of England cutting rates at its Aug. 1 meeting.

The stronger-than-expected GDP reinforced a Wednesday speech

by BoE chief economist Huw Pill, which also caused markets to

push back bets on policy easing.

Pill said services inflation and wage growth showed

"uncomfortable strength" despite headline inflation falling to

the BoE's 2% target in May, and it was unlikely that June

inflation figures due next week would change the big picture.

Pill is seen as a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee,

and the comments were his first in more than six weeks as the

BoE went into a quiet period in May in the run-up to last week's

parliamentary elections.

"Although he (Pill) stressed it was a question of when, not

if, interest rate cuts will come, the possibility of a summer

rate cut is fading," said Streeter.

The big picture for global currencies will be shaped by U.S.

inflation data due at 1230 GMT, which will reinforce or

challenge current market expectations that the Federal Reserve

is more likely than not to cut rates in September.

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