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HSBC ( HSBC ) lifts 2025 gold forecast to $3,355/oz

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U.S. shutdown halts data; Treasury warns $15 bln weekly

hit

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Traders see 25 bps Fed cuts in Oct and Dec

(Updates for morning US hours)

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Oct 16 (Reuters) - Gold hit a record high for the fourth

straight session on Thursday, as investors flocked to the

safe-haven metal on brewing U.S.-China trade tensions and the

U.S. government shutdown, with bets on interest rate cuts

fueling the momentum.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,242.65 per ounce, as of

09:10 a.m. ET (1310 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of

$4,254.61 earlier.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.3%

at $4,256.70.

The yellow metal has gained over 60% year-to-date, driven by

geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank

buying, de-dollarisation and robust ETF inflows.

"Gold's trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture

heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China.

If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the

relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark

gold needs to cross the $5000/oz barrier," said Zain Vawda,

analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering

U.S.-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing

China's expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to

global supply chains.

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve

rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities

of 98% and 95%, respectively.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a

low-interest-rate environment.

Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as

bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda

said.

HSBC ( HSBC ) raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355

an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from

geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S.

dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted

scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it

could cost the economy up to $15 billion a week in lost output.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $52.96 per ounce, after

hitting a record high of $53.60 on Tuesday, tracking gold's

rally and supported by tightness in the spot market.

Platinum rose 0.7% to $1,665.24 and palladium

climbed 1.8% to $1,564.00.