(Adds quotes)
Aug 6 (Reuters) - Asian share markets rebounded on
Tuesday reversing a historic sell-off after central bankers
sought to calm investor fears.
Japan's Nikkei rallied 9.4% as of the midday break,
after plunging 12% on Monday in its biggest one-day percentage
drop since October 1987.
Currency markets remained on edge, with the yen down 1%
after rising for five straight sessions to a seven-month high on
Monday.
QUOTES
VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC,
SINGAPORE
"At this juncture, it is too early to call the market bottom
given multiple moving parts and the momentum of selling.
However, the key question to ask would be whether the economic
and earnings outlook has changed materially and for now, it's
too early to jump the gun. We will have to monitor economic data
in the coming weeks to see if recession fears are indeed
warranted.
"With stock markets plunging around the world, traders are
talking up the prospect of an emergency interest-rate cut from
the Fed after it passed up the opportunity to ease policy last
week. This seems unlikely. The market sell-off is due to an
unwinding of yen carry trades and AI concerns and not because
the U.S. economy is broken and in dire straits. So, there is no
reason for the Fed to step in and mitigate losses for equity
investors."
CHARU CHANANA, HEAD OF CURRENCY STRATEGY, SAXO, SINGAPORE
"There seems to be some calm in the markets, probably
because the selloff was too fast. Perhaps markets could reassess
its calls for an intermeeting rate cut from the Fed without
anything having broken really.
"However, recession concerns will likely remain easy to
trigger as the U.S. growth slowdown broadens, and the market
will likely remain fragile as it continues to look for some sort
of a response from the Fed."
RAY SHARMA-ONG, HEAD OF MULTI-ASSET INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS FOR
SOUTHEAST ASIA, ABRDN, SINGAPORE
"Fundamentally, nothing significant has changed for the
Japanese economy. It is the unwinding of the carry trade driving
a lot of the momentum sells.
"The Japanese market tends to overshoot on the downside
during periods of aggressive selling. Over the past 10 years,
there were three corrections where the TOPIX sold off more than
-10% (May 2013, Jan 2014, Sep 2014), with the market recovering
shortly after each."
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE
"The Nikkei's enjoying a decent retracement against Monday's
plunge, as comments from the Fed's (Mary) Daly and a
stronger-than-expected ISM services report soothed fears of a
panic Fed cut next week. But this is not exactly a risk-on
rally. And we're not yet sure if this is just a breather between
water-boardings or there is more pain to follow.
"But with the VIX futures curve in backwardation, I suspect
price action to remain choppy and fickle until the dust truly
settles. And with so many burned fingers to contend with, it is
hard to see a risk-on rally materialising any time soon. Right
now, a pause will do."
RON SHAMGAR, HEAD OF AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES, TAMIM ASSET
MANAGEMENT, SYDNEY
"My view is that this market turmoil is mostly driven by the
yen carry trade being partly unwound. That's happened on the
same day where U.S. jobs numbers came in slightly weaker than
expected and a potential imminent attack by Iran on Israel.
"Combine those factors with a market that so far hasn't seen
the usual and bi-annual pullback or correction of 5-10% this
calendar year - and you had a so-called rug pull. We think
volatility will persist over the next few weeks and stock prices
direction will be dictated by the upcoming results season in
Australia and the U.S. during late August."
GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR NATIXIS, HONG KONG
"It is hard to say the worst is behind us ... pressure might
linger a little bit."
"There are many moving parts, with three key concerns come
from the outlook of the U.S. economy, the unwinding of
investors' trades in Japan and geopolitical risks in the Middle
East ... particularly the last one, which has not been fully
realised for now. As for the U.S. recession outlook, we see some
sectors in the economy like consumption still holding up, and
datasets in the coming weeks might come out not as bad as the
surface looks, and it may help stabilise things."
ANDREW JACKSON, HEAD OF FIXED INCOME, VONTOBEL, LONDON
"Last week's soft U.S. jobs data has continued to wreak
havoc across markets, with many asset classes, sectors and
regions suffering major declines. The first step of this price
correction was in line with our expectations based on the recent
data; but we are likely now entering an overshoot territory.
"That said, the fact remains that markets are generally
still at or near highs, so the severity of the correction
remains unclear. Corporate bonds remain well insulated from the
market shock, so any outflows, which could be a catalyst for
further declines in already stressed markets, are likely to be
muted and we even see a possibility for inflows."
ROB ALMEIDA, GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AND PORTFOLIO
MANAGER, MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BOSTON
"It is hard to know what the stress point for the sell-off
was. We think it's a combination of many factors that have led
to too many leveraged trades heading for an exit that can't fit
all of them.
"Many wonder whether the market is overreacting. Price is
what you pay and value is what you get. The price of risk assets
was too high and value (i.e., returns on equity) we believe was
below what people have been expecting. Volatility is the market
adjusting for incorrect assumptions, which brings us back to the
prior question, the market's expectations about incomes, we
think, was too high. While profits or earnings have yet to
crash, markets discount it before it happens via tangential
evidence - which is perhaps what it got last week."
(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)