July 1 (Reuters) - The risk premium for French sovereign
debt dropped on Monday, after the first round of general
elections in France confirmed the rise of the far-right National
Rally (RN) party and the erosion of support for President
Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc.
Analysts said a hung parliament remained the base case,
loosely in line with market expectations.
Investors feared that a new government could increase fiscal
spending, threatening the sustainability of the country's public
debt but hoped the RN party would implement just part of its
fiscal pledges.
"Given the division in the French parliament we find it
unlikely that the new government can find support for any larger
increases in spending," said Rune Thyge Johansen, euro area
economist at Danske Bank.
The exit polls aligned with opinion surveys ahead of the
election and provided little clarity on whether the eurosceptic
RN can form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron
after next Sunday's run-off.
The yield spread between French and German 10-year sovereign
bond yields -- a gauge of the premium investors
demand for the extra risk of holding French bonds - tightened to
73 bps after hitting its highest since 2012 at 85 bps on Friday.
It was below 50 bps before Macron's surprise decision on
June 9 to call a snap election.
The RN's chances of winning power next week will depend on
the political deal-making made by its rivals over the coming
days.