(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - Global investors and the

International Monetary Fund seem to agree the Iran war is likely

over - bar the shouting. The energy market is less sure, and

there could be an awful lot of shouting, but many asset prices

have returned to square one, and markets now see the conflict's

impact only at the margins.

The IMF's unenviable task of forecasting global economic

growth during a Middle East war and energy shock left as many

questions as answers, and a plethora of different scenarios.

Take your pick.

The Fund's central conclusion was probably most powerful in

what it didn't do rather than what it did.

The IMF made no change to its global gross domestic product

(GDP) growth forecast for 2027 compared with its last update in

January - three months before the war. Yes, it clipped this

year's expansion and there's a lower starting point as a result.

But next year is essentially expected to develop much like the

Fund saw it pre-war in January and even back in October - 3.2%

world growth.

Even before those forecasts were released on Tuesday, many

in the markets had effectively decided the same.

Wall Street stocks returned to pre-war levels of February 27

on Monday, completing a 565-point, near-10% round trip. The VIX

"fear index" of implied volatility has subsided to its

lowest since February.

Global stocks captured by the MSCI All Country World Index

are not quite back there yet - but they're just

1% from the record highs set two months ago. The pivotal

euro/dollar exchange rate is back to February levels too.

TOO MUCH, TOO SOON?

Much has been made in recent weeks of how little full-year

corporate earnings forecasts have been affected by the oil

shock. Flattered by tech and energy firm upgrades, aggregate

2026 earnings growth estimates have actually climbed 2-3

percentage points since the war started.

Calendar 2027 growth forecasts are still cruising at 18% and

11% for U.S. and European blue chips, respectively.

Real or imagined, 12-month forward price/earnings valuations

for the S&P 500 and MSCI all-country cheapened more than

10% in the month through early April.

The temptation to screen out the war, bet on eventual

de-escalation and focus on the year ahead has been hard to pass

up.

That logic drove BlackRock ( BLK ) - the world's largest asset

manager - to switch back this week to an overweight position in

U.S. stocks and emerging markets.

'TREACHEROUS MOMENT'

It's not as if nothing has changed, of course.

With global oil and gas still bound up in the ongoing Gulf

hiatus, front-month crude futures are still up a third and

natural gas and fertilizer prices remain elevated. Airlines fear

shortages of jet fuel ahead.

Even the IMF admits the longer the Middle East energy crunch

persists, the more its "adverse scenarios" come into view.

Billionaire investorKen Griffinwarned on Tuesday of a

"treacherous moment" and reckons closure of the Strait of Hormuz

for 6-12 months will end in global recession.

But the way oil futures are behaving, that's still not the

market's best guess. Brent crude futures through this

year and next show some normalization. Even though they are

still 10-15% higher than February levels, ready-reckoners -

quick, rule-of-thumb models - suggest that would only shave

0.2-0.3 percentage points off global GDP growth.

That's simply not enough for portfolios to go to ground -

whatever you think of the wider inflationary or political

fallout.

The interest rate and bond markets have not returned to

pre-war levels - the lingering risk of resurgent inflation and

the outside chance of central bank rate rises keep them there.

While that's still a guessing game that hinges on the length

of the conflict too, 10-year Treasury borrowing rates are still

some 30 basis points above February levels and Federal Reserve

futures markets only see about a 30% chance of rate cuts

resuming by year-end. Mortgage rates have barreled higher too

and corporate bonds have been rattled by jitters in the private

credit world.

Global asset managers polled by Bank of America this month

clearly scaled back their early-year bullishness, with sentiment

gauges slipping back to last summer's funk. Inflation

expectations have climbed too.

But chiming with oil futures, the weighted average of

forecasts for year-end crude prices was $84 per barrel and "long

oil" along with long global chip stocks were identified as the

most crowded trades on the planet.

Less than 10% of funds surveyed expect recession ahead.

While average cash levels stayed at 10-month highs last month,

they remain well below prior extremes during last year's April

tariff shock or the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

That's not exactly complacency - but neither is it a

panicked herd.

Second-guessing the conflict will remain a daily obsession,

even if an increasingly price-insensitive one. But market

de-escalation has already begun. Only time will tell if that's

premature.

(The opinions expressed here are those of Mike Dolan, a

columnist for Reuters.)

Save the date: On April 23 at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. EDT, ROI

columnists Mike Dolan and Jamie McGeever will join LSEG for a

webinar discussion, "Markets Unpacked with Reuters Open

Interest: Rethinking safe havens in uncertain times." Click here

to sign up.

Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest

(ROI), your essential new source for global financial

commentary.

Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X.

And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify,

or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists

discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a

week.