July 17 (Reuters) - Every Friday, Reuters Open Interest
(ROI) distills the financial week into five key charts,
spotlighting the major trends, surprises and overlooked moves
that defined the past five days.
1. THIN BUFFERS
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: Renewed U.S. and Iranian
blockades of the Strait of Hormuz have sharply cut oil and gas
exports from the Middle East, adding pressure to global energy
markets that were forced to rapidly adapt earlier this year. But
unlike at the start of the war in late February, global oil
reserves are now heavily depleted, leaving the world with far
thinner buffers to absorb another supply shock.
2. HYPERSCALERS OUT, CHIPS IN
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Hyperscalers'
trillion-dollar capex binge has drained their once-abundant cash
flows, which are now essentially being channeled to the
semiconductor firms providing the chips for the AI buildout.
The "generational transfer" is playing out in markets: the
S&P 500 software and services index is down 17% year
to date, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up
over 65%. The latter had a rough week, and is down almost 17%
for the month. But the long-term trend is the big story here.
3. CHINA SURPRISE
MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: China's exports
surged in June, buoyed by orders for chips to fuel the global
AI boom and by automobile shipments, which topped 1 million for
the first time. The stronger-than-expected trade performance
keeps China on track to post a surplus above $1 trillion for a
second straight year.
However, China also reported that its second-quarter GDP was the
slowest in over three years, coming in below target at 4.3%, as
concerns about domestic consumption and the housing market
continue to weigh on the economy.
4. SOFT LANDING
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor in Charge: U.S. consumer inflation
slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated,
while core prices, which exclude food and energy, posted their
first monthly decline in more than six years. Core CPI slipped
0.02% month-over-month, which was rounded to zero in many
reports, weighed down by a surprisingly large drop in auto
insurance and declines in communications, healthcare and hotel
room prices.
While the report appeared to quash market speculation about a
Federal Reserve rate rise this month, a hike is still expected
later this year. Indeed, this inflation respite may prove to be
brief given that energy prices could rise again if the U.S.-Iran
strikes continue to escalate.
5. TAKING STOCK
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: China's response to the energy
supply shock - sharply cutting crude imports, restricting
exports of refined fuels and drawing on domestic inventories -
marked the culmination of a decades-long campaign to reduce its
heavy dependence on overseas energy supplies.
This may signal that China's role has changed. It's no longer
simply the biggest energy importer but a new independent, opaque
force that could reshape global energy markets for years to
come.
Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect
the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is
committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Anna Szymanski
Editing by Marguerita Choy)