The Russia-Ukraine war has had repercussions on commodities. The ongoing conflict has pushed prices of grains higher; crude oil is now trading at 13-year high levels.

To understand what could be the implications of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, CNBC-TV18 spoke to Victor Abramowicz, Principal of Ostoya Consulting & Security Researcher at Curtin University.

Abramowicz believes price rises will happen along with supply chain issues and that will ultimately impact India. He mentions that there will be a range of other impacts as well, since Ukraine and Russia form 30 percent of global grain supply.

"There will be known unknowns and unknown unknowns in terms of how the price rise will impact. There are also going to be a range of other impacts that may benefit India ultimately. Ukraine and Russia are about 30 percent of the world's grain supply," he said.

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According to him, it will be difficult to predict how the talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukranian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy will pan out. He says that it is very difficult to be confident about the resolution timeframe. According to him some peace may be likely in the near future, however, there’s a fear that Russia may bring in more artillery.

He said, "If they can reach some kind of an accord, we may - this is unlikely - see some form of peace in the not too distant future. What I'm more fearful of is that Russia's terms will remain intransigent. They will now substantially increase their level of military action with much more of a blunt force trauma that heavy weapons can bring in- things like artillery and aircraft strikes and rocket strikes and that in itself will lead to a war that will last weeks or possibly even months."

"The worst case scenario is if Ukraine is totally pushed out of the way, then if you end up having a Ukrainian government in exile, that supports an ongoing resistance, that's the sort of thing that could ultimately affect the region for years. But I should say that it's very difficult for me to be confident in any sort of resolution in anything less than a month and in some lower level, possibly even years," he added.

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Abramowicz believes that a co-ordinated action by the European Union (EU) and the US could have a major impact in restoring some semblance of hope in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. He, however, remains confident that a nuclear conflict remains a long way away.

"It's much more difficult to organize coordinated action amongst all the nations of Europe, as opposed to the United States being able to - at relatively little risk to itself - unilaterally make a decision affecting the Russian oil imports," he explained.

"Nuclear conflict remains a very long-way away. I think what has been happening now is some posturing by the Russians. They raised their nuclear alert level. But in fact, it didn't really do anything, it was going from level one to level two, out of a spectrum of four. So there's still a long-way to go before missiles start flying," he said.

Watch the video for the full interview.

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First Published:Mar 7, 2022 11:45 AM IST