* Government suspends bond sales
* Yields fall slightly in response
* Markets expect central bank's key rate decision
* Inflationary expectations highest since March 2022
By Gleb Bryanski and Darya Korsunskaya
MOSCOW, July 21 (Reuters) - Yields on long-term Russian
state bonds fell slightly on Tuesday in response to the
government's move to suspend their sales and stabilize the
market, after Ukrainian attacks on refineries slowed the pace of
monetary easing and pushed inflation up.
The yields on 10-year government bonds had risen to about
17% from around 15% in recent weeks, ramping up the cost of
borrowing and debt servicing for the government while devaluing
commercial banks' holdings of the bonds.
On Monday, the Finance Ministry, which recently cancelled three
bond auctions, announced it would postpone bond sales
indefinitely, a decision seen by the market as long overdue in
the current situation.
"The decision reflects the ministry's reluctance to borrow
at high interest rates," said Natalya Orlova from Alfa Bank, who
expects the government to keep the suspension in place for at
least another two months.
Russia's sovereign debt is currently around 18% of gross
domestic product (GDP), below the 20% level considered safe by
the government.
However, high rates have pushed up Russia's debt servicing
costs, which are now higher than those for many countries with
large debt.
The decision to suspend bond sales may affect the
government's plans to raise money to cover the budget deficit,
which rose to 2.5% of GDP in the first half of the year, well
above the full-year target of 1.6% of GDP, amid increasing
spending to sustain the war in Ukraine.
QUEUES FOR FUEL AND HUMAN EMOTIONS
The Russian stock market is also down by more than 25% this
year, with the decline accelerating in June when attacks on
refineries led to fuel shortages across the country and queues
at pumping stations.
The market turmoil may also lead to losses for banks, major
holders of government bonds and corporate stock.
Before the attacks on refineries, the central bank had been
cutting the key interest rate as the inflation rate came down,
with yields on long-term state bonds also edging lower. In June,
inflation started rising again amid attacks and fuel shortages.
In June, the central bank cut the key rate by 25 basis
points, less than expected, citing rising fuel prices as one of
the risks. The central bank is expected to keep the key rate on
hold at the upcoming July 24 meeting.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to raise its
forecast for the average key rate next year, in a major blow to
the Kremlin's plans to speed up economic growth, currently
expected at 0.4% this year.
Russian household inflation expectations, an important gauge
the central bank is looking into before the key rate decision,
rose in July to the highest level since the market turmoil in
March 2022, the first full month of the war in Ukraine.
"This likely reflects the June scene outside the window with
queues for fuel and universal human emotions about it," said
economist Dmitry Polevoy, adding that the new data will be a
significant factor in the key rate decision this week.
(Writing by Gleb Bryanski, Editing by William Maclean)