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Russian rouble unlikely to react to expected key rate hike this week
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Russian rouble unlikely to react to expected key rate hike this week
Dec 16, 2024 2:19 AM

MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble

strengthened against the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan on

Monday with analysts saying that the market is still adjusting

to new U.S. financial sanctions and is not likely to react to an

expected key interest rate hike this week.

By 0930 GMT, the rouble was up 0.9% at 104.50 against

the dollar, according to over-the-counter market data from

banks. The rouble strengthened by 0.4% to 13.81 against the yuan

in trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

The Russian central bank is set to raise its benchmark

interest rate by another 200 basis points to 23% at its Dec. 20

board meeting, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, to fight

inflation.

"The rouble's volatility remains a direct consequence of

external factors. The expected increase in the key rate is

unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the rouble," said

Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank.

The U.S. sanctions, imposed on Nov. 22, hit Gazprombank,

Russia's third-largest lender, which handles payments for energy

trade with Europe, disrupting foreign trade transactions and the

supply of foreign currency to the Russian market.

The rouble lost up to 15% against the dollar after the

sanctions but it then recovered much of those losses.

One-day rouble/dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow

Stock Exchange and are a guide for the over-the-counter exchange

rate, were flat at 102.92. The Russian central bank set an

official exchange rate at 103.43 to the dollar.

One of Russia's richest businessman, Vladimir Potanin, CEO

of nickel and palladium producer Nornickel, said in an interview

with RBC television on Dec. 14 that an exchange rate of 100 to

105 roubles to the dollar was justified.

"An exchange rate of 100 to 110 roubles per dollar, I

believe, is something quite economically justified, something

the country can live with. It is a kind of balance between

budgetary interests and the interests of exporters," he said.

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