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Safe havens rebound as Trump escalates trade war with China
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Safe havens rebound as Trump escalates trade war with China
Apr 10, 2025 12:03 AM

TOKYO (Reuters) - Traders swept back into safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up his trade war against China even as he abruptly paused tariffs for 90 days on many other nations.

Gold rallied back towards its record peak, despite Asian equity markets ripping higher following the White House's unexpected U-turn.

Treasury bonds gained in Asian hours, reversing the direction for U.S. yields and putting the dollar under broad pressure. Several analysts also spoke about a brewing crisis of confidence in the U.S. currency as a result of Trump's flip-flops on trade policy.

The risk-sensitive Aussie and New Zealand dollars, exposed to China's fortunes due to close trade ties, initially reversed some of their eye-watering rallies from Wednesday, but turned higher again with the stock rally set to sweep into Europe.

The Chinese yuan briefly slipped to its lowest since the global financial crisis 2007/2008, but was last trading slightly higher.

Trump maintained a baseline tariff rate of 10% on most countries as he stunned markets by awarding a 90-day reprieve on his "Liberation Day" reciprocal levies that had gone into effect less than 24 hours earlier.

At the same time, he singled out China for additional levies, taking the tariff rate to 125% for Chinese imports with immediate effect, after Beijing countered previous U.S. duties with an 84% tariff rate.

"Regardless of how the next 90 days evolve, the U.S.'s international reputation has been eroded," ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.

"The U.S. dollar's valuation extremes against some currencies seem increasingly unjustified in the medium term."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the sweeping tariff pullback had been the plan all along to bring countries to the bargaining table.

Trump later indicated the near-panic in markets since his April 2 announcements had factored into his thinking.

"It seems likely that the U.S. President blinked (when) confronted with a potential recession, a political backlash, a near equity bear market and the early warning signs of a financial crisis," said Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com.

"There's now less confidence in the U.S. government amongst investors," he said.

"Even if President Trump does cut deals with trading partners, there's harm that's been done to the markets and the U.S. economy that will take time to heal."

The U.S. dollar dropped 0.8% to 146.54 yen as of 0525 GMT. It fell 0.5% to 0.8532 Swiss franc.

The euro added 0.3% to $1.0983.

The Aussie climbed 0.5% to $0.6185, after earlier slumping as much as 0.5%. On Wednesday, it soared 3.3% after earlier plumbing a five-year trough at $0.5910.

The New Zealand dollar soared 0.8% to $0.5694, adding to a 2.1% jump in the prior session.

The onshore yuan slipped to 7.3518 a dollar in early trade, its weakest since December 26, 2007, but was last trading slightly stronger on the day at 7.3420 per dollar.

China's central bank cut guidance for the official yuan rate for a sixth successive trading session on Thursday, signalling an intention to allow a very gradual depreciation.

"We believe Beijing views these U.S. trade actions as nothing short of a declaration of economic war," BCA Research analysts wrote in a note.

"Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to depreciate materially," the note said. "The U.S.-China confrontation is set to escalate from here."

Gold jumped 1.3% to around $3,122 per ounce, closing in on a record high of $3,167.57 reached a week ago.

"We remain adamantly bullish on gold, and are strategically overweight on the asset," said Li Zhao, macro strategist at China International Capital Corp (CICC).

Gold will benefit from whatever scenarios the U.S. economy could face in future, whether recession, hyper-inflation or debt going out of control, Li said.

"As long as Trump is still U.S. president ... gold will shine."

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