*
Tuesday's closely watched sale of 30-year bonds went
smoothly
*
Yields hit all-time peaks as fiscal dove Takaichi set to
be
premier
*
JGB yields pulled higher by overnight rises in US, French
yields
(Adds analyst comments, updates with 30-year auction result)
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) -
Japanese government bond yields retreated from record highs
on Tuesday after a closely watched sale of 30-year debt passed
smoothly, despite simmering concerns that the country's likely
next prime minister
will loosen fiscal restraints.
The smooth, if unspectacular, auction result allayed
market jitters
that had pushed 30-year JGB yields up 6
basis points (bps) to an all-time time high of 3.345% in early
trading.
After the announcement, those yields reversed course and
were down 3.5 bps at 3.25%. Bond yields rise when prices fall.
The 20-year JGB yield climbed 5 bps in
early trade to 2.74%, the highest since August 1999, but also
shed gains and were flat at 2.69% after the auction
announcement.
The 10-year yield, which had advanced 2.5
bps to 1.695% for the first time since July 2008, pulled back to
1.68%.
Long-dated JGB yields jumped sharply on Monday in the
immediate aftermath of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi's victory in
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) weekend leadership
elections, setting her up to take over the premiership from
Shigeru Ishiba, a fiscal hawk.
Ironically, that yield surge was likely responsible for
the decent level of demand at Tuesday's sale, said Naomi
Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley
Securities.
"Yields rose so much ahead of the auction that it
invited dip buyers," she said.
But as to whether the climb in yields and concerns about
Takaichi's policies are overblown, "we just don't know yet,"
Muguruma said.
"Takaichi is pushing 'resposible fiscal expansion,' and
we don't know what that really means."
Additionally, a lot will depend on the outcome of
negotiations both within the LDP and with opposition parties in
forming the next government, Muguruma added.
Weak demand at long-term debt auctions earlier this year
triggered record spikes in yields that prompted the Ministry of
Finance to curtail issuance of 20-, 30-, and 40-year securities
- something that analysts and investors say has improved the
supply-demand balance.
A veteran lawmaker, Takaichi is a devotee of the
"Abenomics" stimulus policies of the late Shinzo Abe, who called
for loose fiscal settings and ultra-low interest rates to revive
the economy.
Her win saw swaps traders rapidly adjust expectations
for a Bank of Japan
interest rate hike
this month, with market-implied odds dropping to around 26%
currently from 37% on Friday, according to LSEG data.
Japan's two-year bond yield - which is
highly sensitive to monetary policy expectations - plunged as
much as 5 bps to a three-week low of 0.89% on Monday, but undid
part of that in the current session with a 1.5 bps rise to
0.91%.
The five-year JGB yield added 2 bps to
1.21%, undoing the bulk of Monday's slide.
Japanese yields were under broad upward pressure on
Tuesday following climbs in global yields overnight,
particularly for French OATs following the rapid
collapse
of the new government there, and for Treasuries as the U.S.
government
shutdown
drags on.
($1 = 150.42 yen)