* Investors wary as Iran reviews US proposal
* Stocks and gold slip while oil advances
* Markets worried about energy price shocks
(Updates after start of Wall Street trading)
By Marc Jones and Ankur Banerjee
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Stock and bond
markets fell on Thursday as oil surged more than 5%, with Iran's
denial of any talks with the U.S. deepening doubts over the
prospect of a quick ceasefire in the near one-month-long Middle
East war.
Conflicting signals over the scope of contact, plus reports
of thousands of U.S. troops being sent to the region, snapped a
three-day rebound in world stocks and reignited selling in
global debt markets.
After falls in Asia - where the Philippines held an
unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil - European
stocks and government bond prices dropped as Germany's
central bank head said an ECB rate increase next month was "an
option"and Norway said it was now likely to hike rates this year
too.
A warning from U.S. President Donald Trump to Iran to "get
serious" about a ceasefire saw oil and European natural gas
prices jump more than 5.5% and 4% respectively.
It hoisted Brent to just over $107 a barrel and gas
to 54.9 euros per megawatt hour, leaving their gains
for the month atan eye-watering 45% and 70% and cementing the
worries of policymakers about another 2022-style inflation
spike.
"I think we'll have enough data by April to determine
whether we need to take action or whether we can wait and see,"
Germany's central bank chief Joachim Nagel said during an
interview with Reuters regarding a possible ECB rate hike.
He said it was just one of the options the ECB had, but
added: "We shouldn't shy away from it now just because we think
it's still too early."
Trump repeated on Thursday that Iran was "begging" to make a
deal to end the war. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, had
earlier countered that Tehran was reviewing a U.S. proposal but
had no intention of holding talks.
The war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late
February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the
Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and
liquefied natural gas flows.
A first economic forecast from the Paris-based OECD since
the crisis erupted predicted it would suppress global GDP
growth, keeping it below 3% this year.
Germany's two-year bond yield, sensitive to
European Central Bank rate expectations, rose 8 basis points to
2.68%, after falling 4 bps on Wednesday. Bond yields move
inversely to prices.
The U.S. two-year yield was nearing 4%, while
Japan's hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33%,
as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as
early as next month.
Prolonged disruption in the strait could keep energy prices
and inflation elevated, forcing central banks to tighten, Pascal
Koeppel, chief investment officer at Vontobel SFA, said.
Earlier on Thursday, Norway's central bank said it now
expects to raise its rates this year due to rising energy prices
and wages, after previously flagging it could cut them.
"If we saw (U.S.) ground troops in action, that would make
me much more nervous," Vontobel's Koeppel added. If that
happened, "we would trim risk... and go more into short-term
government bonds and gold, of course."
STRUCTURAL SHIFTS
Wall Street'smain markets also opened around 1% lower,
and Asian markets fell overnight.
Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3%, while worries over
rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which
slumped 3.2%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9% and China's blue
chips dropped 1.3%, leaving MSCI's index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan on track for a
9.5% monthly fall, its biggest since October 2022.
In currencies, the dollar held near recent highs and
is heading for a 2% gain this month, reviving its safe-haven
appeal after last year's more than 9% slide.
Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders
fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this
year, further supporting the dollar.
Gold, another traditional safety play, has dropped
more than 16% this month - on course for its steepest fall since
October 2008. It was down 2% at $4,421 per ounce on Thursday,
though still almost 50% higher than a year ago.
"If you look at what the U.S. wants to achieve, what Israel
wants to achieve, and what Tehran wants to achieve, it will be
very hard to reconcile all these points," said Matthias
Scheiber, senior portfolio manager and the head of the
multi-asset team at Allspring Global Investments.
"We still think there is a case to make for structurally
higher energy prices for the moment."