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Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares, equity indexes turn lower after initial
gains
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Doubts on Fed cut in Dec also weigh, following jobs data
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Concerns over concentration in tech stocks persist
(Recasts throughout for market downturn, adds quotes)
By Lewis Krauskopf and Dhara Ranasinghe
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 20 (Reuters) -
Nvidia Corp's ( NVDA ) strong earnings report offered only a brief
reprieve from worries that have plagued stocks about the return
on relentless artificial intelligence investment and lofty
valuations on Wall Street.
AI darling Nvidia ( NVDA ) on Wednesday surprised Wall
Street with accelerating growth after several quarters of
slowing sales and a fourth-quarter forecast that exceeded
expectations.
Initial relief across world stocks, however, turned sour on
Thursday as investors refocused on the negatives that pulled the
benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite off
record highs hit late last month. Investors also grappled with
the delayed release of September payrolls data that solidified
the belief that the Federal Reserve would not lower interest
rates for a third straight meeting in December.
"This is a coordinated risk off trade - tech stocks,
crypto, etc on worries about valuations and leverage," said
Nationwide Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett. "The fact that
it is an intraday decline rather than a drop at the open
suggests exhaustion."
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) upbeat results did not dispel concern around a
fall back to earth for highly-valued tech stocks, amid lingering
concerns about whether AI spending will pay off.
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) results "are encouraging and support the AI story,"
said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at
Edward Jones. "But ... I think there's broad skepticism over the
next one-to-three years whether AI is going to be able to
deliver on the return side."
Global stocks have now dropped over 3% this month in part
driven by concerns that a rally in tech shares has gone too far,
too fast.
"The concerns around tech will persist and each quarter we
are likely to come across the same concerns as markets question
the concentration," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at
Principal Global Investors in London.
"That story won't go away."
Shah said that while she was overweight U.S. stocks, she was
also wary of concentration risks and this was one reason why she
was looking at European shares.
AI COMPANY RESULTS AS IMPORTANT AS DATA PRINTS
Investors and analysts say that as AI emerges as a so-called
mega-trend, market sentiment hangs on earnings results from
chipmaker Nvidia ( NVDA ), a bellwether for the AI build-out, and other
technology companies. They are as key to shaping views on the
economic outlook as monthly economic releases.
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares were down over 2% after rallying sharply in
early trade. The S&P 500 was off 1.2% and the Nasdaq was down
1.7% after both had climbed sharply earlier. MSCI's index of
global shares was off 0.7%.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday said it scrapped its forecast
that the Fed would cut interest rates by a quarter-point at its
December meeting after the Labor Department released data
showing a
greater-than-expected 119,000 non-farm payrolls increase
in September. The report was more than a month late due to
the government shutdown.
"It's a sense that the Fed is still driving in the fog
and we're not going to get any support from monetary policy in
the short term," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.
Riley Wealth. "I think that's been a larger influence (in the
market today) than the questioning about AI valuations."
"The positive here is the most speculative fringes of
the market are getting a much-needed sell-off."
Fed Governor Lisa Cook didn't help sentiment, saying
that historically elevated prices in equities, corporate bonds,
housing and leveraged-loan markets may portend a large pullback
in valuations.
AI, TECH STOCK CONCERNS REMAIN
Thursday's action showed that investors need to brace
for a bumpy ride.
"Investors do need to worry about bubble risks," Mark
Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth
Management, told reporters on a call about the 2026 outlook on
Thursday.
The so-called "Magnificent Seven" - including Nvidia ( NVDA ) and
Meta - have seen their share prices soar over the past
several years, fuelling fears about the scale of market exposure
to just a few names.
Technology firms are among the stock market's big fallers in
recent days, although they are still well up on the year.
The S&P 500 tech sector's forward price/earnings ratio - a
measure of how much a company is worth compared to future
earnings - was recently about 30 times, well above its 10-year
average of 22.2.
The AI stocks frenzy has drawn comparisons with the 1990s
dotcom boom and bust, while concerns were rising about debt
taken on by tech firms.
Nvidia ( NVDA ) produced $60 billion in free cash flow over the past
12 months, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New
Constructs, said in a note. To justify its current stock price,
it would need to produce $2.1 trillion in annual cash flows
within 10 years, he said.
On Wednesday, speaking before the Nvidia ( NVDA ) results, Amundi,
Europe's biggest asset manager, said it was underweight megacap
stocks.
While it had not sold down the stocks in most portfolios, it
has been hedging with derivatives that give it the option to
sell them instead, Amundi's CIO, Vincent Mortier, said.