LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields rose sharply on Wednesday, as traders increased bets that
a sharp rise in energy prices due to the raging U.S.-Iran war
will force the European Central Bank to raise interest rates
this year.
The war risks pushing the central bank into raising interest
rates sooner than previously thought, ECB Governing Council
member Peter Kazimir told Bloomberg in an interview published on
Wednesday.
The comments pushed money market traders to ramp up bets on
ECB rate hikes, seeing an 80% chance of an increase by July and
fully pricing in an increase by September. Traders had
previously seen a chance of rate cuts before the war broke out.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is sensitive
to ECB rate expectations, was up 7 basis point (bp) at 2.345%.
On Monday, it had hit its highest since August 2024, at 2.476%.
"I'd say a reaction by the ECB is potentially closer than
many people think," Kazimir told Bloomberg. He also said, "For
the time being, we need to stay calm."
Andrzej Szczepaniak, senior European economist at Nomura,
said the move in ECB pricing was due to Kazimir's comments.
He added that surveys on inflation expectations will become
extremely important in coming months as officials decide how to
respond to an expected up-tick in inflation.
Germany's 10-year bond yield was up 4 bps at
2.901%, down from Monday's one-year high of 2.931%. Yields move
inversely to prices.
Italian bonds continued to underperform Bunds, in part
reflecting the country's greater reliance on oil and natural gas
imports and its weaker public finances.
Italy's 10-year bond yield was up 11 bps at
3.633%, although it kept below Monday's 11-month high of 3.785%.
Yields shot higher on Monday as oil prices surged to their
highest in almost four years, at close to $120 a barrel.
They have since fallen, along with energy prices, on hopes
the war could be shorter than feared at the start of the week
and that countries could release strategic petroleum reserves.
Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, fluctuated on
Wednesday and was up 5% at $92.20 a barrel. It stood at just
over $70 a barrel before the conflict broke out.
The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest
release of oil reserves in its history to tame prices, the Wall
Street Journal said on Tuesday, citing officials familiar with
the matter.
Oil prices dropped roughly 11% on Tuesday after U.S.
President Donald Trump told CBS News the war was "very
complete".
"Markets are welcoming the thought of the Middle East
conflict ending soon, but oil prices tell us that we're not
there yet," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rates
strategist at ING.