ORLANDO, Florida, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq clocking their seventh daily gain, as investors shrugged off a rise in oil prices and pinned their hopes on the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire extending to Israel and Lebanon too.

In my column today I look beyond the market euphoria uncorked by Tuesday's announcement of the ceasefire, and outline why the economic, policy and geopolitical backdrop is still pretty sobering for investors.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Israel seeks Lebanon talks after bombardments threatenIran truce 2. Hormuz at near standstill as Iran warns ships to keep toits waters 3. Iran's Hormuz 'toll booth' set to hardwire higher energyprices: Bousso 4. U.S. software stocks fall as Anthropic's new AI modelrevives disruption fears 5. Carlyle private credit fund bleeds out amidindustry-wide investor exodusToday's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia lower, with KOSPI -2%; Europe and UKbenchmarks dip ever so slightly; Wall Street's big three rise0.6% to 0.8%. * SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rise, ledby consumer discretionary, industrials and comms services.Energy -1%. Brown-Forman +13%, Amazon +5.6%, Intel +5%, Nike +2% * FX: Dollar falls for fourth day in a row. AUD, NZD andNOK biggest G10 gainers, BRL and CLP among the biggest EMgainers. * BONDS: European yields retrace only a fraction ofWednesday's fall, JGB yields inch up towards this week'smulti-decade highs. U.S. yields narrowly mixed, 30-year auctionpasses without incident. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil back up towards $100/bbl. Brent+1%, WTI +3.5%. Physical European, African crude hits recordhigh. Gold +1%.Today's Talking Points

* Stagflation nation

Figures on Friday are expected to show annual headline U.S. CPI inflation last month was 3.3%, up sharply from 2.4% in February. That would be the highest in nearly two years. Core goods prices are running hot, and with oil 65% more expensive than it was a year ago, inflation hitting 4% is more likely than the Fed's 2% target.

Some of the early March survey data suggest the economy remains pretty resilient. But incoming hard data isn't that robust, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 GDP estimate is now down to 1.3%. Plus, Q4 GDP was revised down on Thursday to 0.5%. Not great.

* AI disruption fears

U.S. software stocks tumbled on Thursday after Anthropic held back the wide release of a powerful AI model over concerns ​it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Software stocks are down 25% this year, against a 4% decline for the wider tech sector.

Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Fund research shows AI could boost productivity by up to 0.8%, but also affect 60% of all jobs in developed economies. That is sobering, to put it mildly.

* Income incoming

The Q1 U.S. reporting season kicks into gear next week, and the outlook is pretty rosy. The LSEG I/B/E/S consensus is for a 14.4% rise in earnings, again led by tech - income is expected to rise 46%, and if consensus forecasts are met, that would mean tech accounting for 75% of the overall rise in dollar income.

A lot of optimism is built into these forecasts. The Nasdaq is back above its pre-war level, and on Thursday clocked its seventh straight rise, a run not seen since August 2024. But remember, tech's valuation premium over the broader market has collapsed to a 7-year low. So maybe the bullishness is justified?

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East * Energy market moves * Social media posts from Trump * New Zealand manufacturing PMI (March) * Taiwan trade (March) * China PPI, CPI inflation (March) * Japan wholesale inflation (March) * South Korea interest rate decision * Germany inflation (March, final) * European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindosspeaks * Brazil inflation (March) * Canada unemployment (March) * U.S. CPI inflation (March) * U.S. factory orders (February) * U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflationexpectations (April, prelim)Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.

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