ORLANDO, Florida, July 22 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq fell on
Wednesday, dragged down by software stocks ahead of some major
tech earnings reports, while deepening conflict in the Middle
East pushed oil prices sharply higher again and Brent crude
closer to the $100 a barrel mark.
In my column today, I look at the yen's slide to a 40-year low
against the dollar. There are many reasons, including the global
energy shock and yield differentials, but central to the
currency's chronic weakness is Japan's growing policy
credibility deficit in the eyes of global investors.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Google beats quarterly revenue expectations on enterprise
AI surge
2. OpenAI AI models went rogue during testing, triggering
"unprecedented" breach at startup
3. BOJ on alert to price risks that may lead to faster rate
hikes, sources say
4. Separate U.S. talks with Canada, Mexico test North
America's trilateral trade pact
5. Escalating Middle East war could slash global growth to
1.3% in 2026, World Bank chief economist says
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Europe +0.6%, UK +1.2% to near 5-month high. Dow
and S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq -0.5%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors rise, five fall.
Utilities +2.3%, comms services -1.3%. Google -3% in choppy
trade after earnings, Tesla -3% on after-the-bell earnings.
* FX: Dollar/yen holds above 163.00, euro steady around
$1.14 ahead of ECB. COP hits 5-year high, NOK rises vs EUR for
14th day in last 17.
* BONDS: 2-year JGB yield 1.475%, highest since 1995. U.S.
yields up 3-5 bps across the curve, 20-year auction demand ok
but high tail.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +3% to 6-week high, Brent closes
in on $95/bbl.
Today's Talking Points
* Open-doors AI
OpenAI said on Tuesday that an autonomous agent powered by its
advanced artificial intelligence models went rogue during a
security test, triggering a hack that compromised AI startup
Hugging Face last week. Essentially, the "unprecedented cyber
incident, involving state-of-the-art cyber capabilities" was a
hack into a different company's systems that had no human
involvement.
This is the stuff of nightmares for ordinary people,
businesses, and regulators. The worry is it won't be the last
such breach and that those to come will potentially have much
more devastating consequences. A glitch in the matrix?
* Call to action
The two-year Japanese government bond yield jumped to 1.475%
on Wednesday, its highest level in 31 years, as traders bet that
the Bank of Japan will accelerate the pace of rate hikes. Of
course, what constitutes a faster pace of rate hikes in Japan is
different from elsewhere in the developed world - only one
quarter-point hike is fully priced over the next six months.
The BOJ is certainly in a tough spot, with oil prices
shooting higher again, the yen at a 40-year low against the
dollar and an all-time low on a "REER" basis. More aggressive
tightening appears to be warranted, but that would not be
welcomed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government. While
the BOJ sits on its hands, the yen remains under heavy pressure.
* Meanwhile, on Main Street
As energy prices rise, so do bond yields, and so too does
the pressure on households. The latest figures show the average
30-year mortgage rate is at its highest in almost a year and
average gas prices are back above $4 a gallon. Both are set to
rise further - the 30-year Treasury yield is having its longest
stretch above 5.00% since 2003, and crude is up 30% in just
three weeks.
On the plus side for Americans, equity markets are still
holding up well, which is helping to boost the wealth effect and
keep financial conditions loose. But the relief from
softer-than-expected inflation readings for June will likely be
short-lived, and spending power is being squeezed. Main Street
may feel the pinch more than Wall Street.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* South Korea GDP (Q2, advance)
* European Central Bank interest rate decision
* U.S. weekly jobless claims
* U.S. Treasury sells $21 billion of 10-year TIPS at auction
* U.S. earnings, including Intel, Blackstone, T-Mobile
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