ORLANDO, Florida, May 11 (Reuters) - U.S. and world
stocks touched new highs on Monday, as artificial intelligence
fever continued to outweigh the prolonged U.S.-Iran impasse. The
ceasefire is fragile and hopes of a lasting deal appear to be
fading, but for now, tech-led earnings optimism is proving to be
a powerful force.
In my column today, I look at stock market concentration,
which is near record levels in the U.S. and across emerging
markets. Should investors be worried? Not necessarily, although
it could get messy once the drawdown finally gets underway.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Trump says Iran ceasefire is 'on life support' as
hopes for a deal fade
2. Volatility, not high prices, will define Big Oil's
next chapter: Bousso
3. Trump and China's Xi set for talks spanning Iran,
nuclear, trade and AI
4. Slashing immigration could lead to higher taxes:
Joachim Klement
5. Alphabet, Amazon ( AMZN ) tap overseas debt markets to fund AI
infrastructure push
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Record highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nikkei,
KOSPI, and MSCI All Country and Asia ex-Japan indices. China at
11-year high.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Six sectors on the S&P 500 rise, five
fall. Tech +1%, Energy +2.6%; Comms services -2.3%. Philadelphia
semiconductor index +2.6% to new high. Caterpillar +3%, Nvidia ( NVDA )
+2%; Nike ( NKE ) -4%.
* FX: Dollar inches higher, yen the biggest G10
decliner. India's rupee slumps, Korea's won down sharply too.
* BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields up 6 bps at short end,
bear steepening the curve. 3-year auction draws weak demand.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +3%, silver +7%.
Today's Talking Points
* High, high, high
U.S. and global stocks are powering to fresh highs, even
though oil prices and bond yields are climbing too. There's an
assumption that global supply chain disruption and rising energy
and borrowing costs should cool the equity frenzy, but that's
not necessarily the case.
The artificial intelligence boom is offsetting the drag on
growth from the global supply shock, and energy markets are
still relatively sanguine that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen
soon. BlackRock ( BLK ) analysts remain bullish: "We see no disconnect
between record U.S. equities prices and elevated oil,
commodities and yields. Markets are pricing both AI-driven
growth and the impact of the Middle East supply shock. We stay
pro-risk as a result."
* China whirl
Attention turns to Beijing, and the U.S.-China summit later
this week between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Traveling with Trump is an entourage of executives from Tesla
, Apple ( AAPL ), BlackRock ( BLK ) and several other
U.S. corporate titans. Is this show of economic strength
intended to intimidate Xi? Perhaps.
China's latest 'data dump', meanwhile, showed surging export
growth, a widening trade surplus and rising price pressures in
April, suggesting the economy is moving out of disinflation. But
unemployment ticked up and retail sales were disappointing.
* Funding AI
Big tech's borrowing spree to fund the AI buildout is
deepening and spreading, with Alphabet disclosing
plans for its first bond sale denominated in Japanese yen and
Amazon ( AMZN ) preparing its debut Swiss franc offering.
The currencies are noteworthy. They are traditionally the
lowest-yielding G10 currencies, making it a relatively cheap
option for the borrowers. Swiss policy rates right now are zero.
It also diversifies the megacaps' investor base. But at the end
of the day, cash reserves are dwindling and debt is rising.
Pressure on the mega AI capex to pay off is growing.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Energy market moves
* Australia consumer sentiment (May)
* Japan earnings including Panasonic ( PCRFF ), Mazda ( MZDAF ) and Sharp
* Japan household spending (March)
* India inflation (April)
* Germany inflation (April, final)
* Germany ZEW investor sentiment (May)
* Bank of England's Sam Woods speaks
* Brazil inflation (April)
* U.S. Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at
auction
* U.S. CPI inflation (April)
* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include
New York President John Williams and Chicago Fed President
Austan Goolsbee
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