ORLANDO, Florida, April 1 (Reuters) - Stocks rose on

Wednesday and oil and the dollar fell on continued optimism that

de-escalation in the Middle East is imminent. U.S. President

Donald Trump said the U.S. will leave Iran "pretty quickly", and

attention now turns to his televised address later on Wednesday

evening.

In my column today I look at whether central banks are

selling Treasuries, an issue back in the spotlight as Fed

custody holdings sink to a 16-year low. The answer isn't

straightforward - they probably are, but not as fast as you'd

think.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Trump says U.S. may exit Iran war soon and threatens

to quit NATO

2. A war meant to break Iran could leave Tehran

stronger, and Gulf exposed

3. Factory input costs soar worldwide as Iran war snarls

up supply chains

4. Mega IPOs set to test U.S. market depth despite

volatility

5. EXCLUSIVE-BoE's Bailey invokes 2008 lessons amid

private credit scrutiny

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Sky of blue, sea of green. In Asia, South

Korea +9%, Japan +5%. In Europe, STOXX 600 +2.5%, FTSE 100

+1.8%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.2%. MSCI World

has biggest 2-day gain since last April.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Eight S&P 500 sectors rise.

Industrials, materials, tech, comms services rise 1% or more.

Energy -4%, biggest fall in a year, Nike -15%, Chevron -5%.

Intel +8%, Eli Lilly +5%.

* FX: Dollar -0.4%, posts biggest two-day decline since

early Feb. Biggest G10 FX gainer is GBP, biggest EM gainer is

CLP.

* BONDS: A quiet day for U.S. Treasuries, yields up 1-2

bps across the curve. Rates futures drifting back to price in

Fed cut this year rather than hike.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil down: Brent -3%, WTI -2%. Gold

+2%. U.S. nat gas hits 6-month closing low.

Today's Talking Points

* The address will be televised

U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver a prime-time

address to the nation on Wednesday night, and is expected to

"provide an important update" on Iran. It is likely to be

market-moving, although in which direction, it's not clear.

That's the problem - there is no clarity. In recent days

Trump has said the war is over, or the U.S. will continue

bombing; re-opening the Strait of Hormuz is central to a deal,

or it's not; there could be troops on the ground, or not; a deal

is close at hand, or it's not. Will his TV address provide

clarity?

* March madness

Despite the month of March bringing war, $100 oil and huge

global supply shocks, consumers, businesses and investors seem

remarkably upbeat. Sentiment surveys and purchasing managers'

index indicators point to a general sense of optimism that any

economic pain will be short-lived.

Investors clearly want to buy the dip. The question now is

whether this optimism translates into the hard activity data.

It's difficult to imagine no hit to production, trade, spending

or investment. But we've been surprised before.

* U.S. nat gas at 6-month ... low?

U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday to their lowest

level since the Middle East conflict started on February 28, and

posted their lowest close in six months. Yes, you read that

correctly - lowest.

While global energy prices remain volatile and elevated,

especially in Asia and Europe, U.S. gas prices are being

pressured by high storage and mild weather. The front month

closed on Tuesday at $2.819/mBtu, down 20% from the

post-February 27 peak of $3.494 on March 9.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Australia trade (February)

* South Korea inflation (March)

* Canada trade (February)

* U.S. Challenger layoffs (March)

* U.S. weekly jobless claims

* U.S. trade (February)

* U.S. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks

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