ORLANDO, Florida, July 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged,
Treasury yields spiked, and stocks fell on Monday after
President Donald Trump said the U.S. was reinstating its
blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf, while the slide in
tech shares continued as investors awaited U.S. bank earnings on
Tuesday.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Trump says US reinstates blockade of Iranian shipping in
Strait of Hormuz after new clashes
2. SK Hynix plunges after Nasdaq debut amid diminishing
earnings optimism
3. Global pension funds pull back on FX hedges as dollar
woes ease
4. Japan has no plans to overhaul pension funds' asset
allocation, sources say
5. China aims to spur consumption in first five-year
blueprint
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: South Korea -9%, Nikkei -2%. Europe, UK flat.
Major U.S. indices in the red, Nasdaq -1.5%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: SK Hynix -15%, TSMC +1%. Volkswagen +1%.
U.S. tech -2%, energy +3%. SanDisk-13%, Intel -6%, Nvidia -3.5%.
* FX: USD/CNY lowest daily fix since February 2023. USD/JPY
back above 162.00. HUF is biggest EM FX loser, -1%.
* BONDS: U.S. yields rise broadly, +6 bps at the short end
to bear flatten the curve. September Fed hike fully priced.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +9%, gold -3%.
Today's Talking Points
* Buy - or sell - the chip
The AI bull/bear debate is intensifying, and positions are
becoming more entrenched. Daily price swings and single stock
volatility are increasing, especially in Asia - South Korea's SK
Hynix fell a record 15% on Monday, and realized volatility in
the benchmark KOSPI remains extremely elevated. Meanwhile,
Taiwan's TSMC on Monday announced record revenue in Q2. The U.S.
turbulence is less severe, for now, but Wall Street is wobbling.
* Off the Waller
Fed Governor Christopher Waller struck a hawkish tone on Monday,
saying interest rates may need to be raised. Soon. His comments
come a day before June CPI inflation data are released, and
Chair Kevin Warsh is grilled by U.S. lawmakers. Waller is one of
the most influential voices on the Fed's 19-strong rate-setting
committee - an upside surprise in core CPI on Tuesday will
surely strengthen markets' already firming rate hike
expectations for later this year.
* Banking on it
Wall Street financial giants JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA
and Citi report on Tuesday, setting the tone for what analysts
expect will be a bumper Q2 earnings season, even by the
exceptionally high bar set by recent quarters. S&P 500 earnings
are expected to jump nearly 24% year on year, according to LSEG
IBES, with tech still expected to do the heavy lifting. Banks'
conference calls will be closely monitored for commentary on AI
and wider macro outlook.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* China trade (June)
* U.S. CPI inflation (June)
* U.S. 'TIC' flows data (May)
* U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's
'Humphrey-Hawkins' testimony to Congress
* U.S. earnings, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi,
Bank of America, Wells Fargo
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