ORLANDO, Florida, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks

rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq clocking their

seventh daily gain, as investors shrugged off a rise in oil

prices and pinned their hopes on the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire

extending to Israel and Lebanon too.

In my column today I look beyond the market euphoria

uncorked by Tuesday's announcement of the ceasefire, and outline

why the economic, policy and geopolitical backdrop is still

pretty sobering for investors.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Israel seeks Lebanon talks after bombardments

threaten Iran truce

2. Hormuz at near standstill as Iran warns ships to keep

to its waters

3. Iran's Hormuz 'toll booth' set to hardwire higher

energy prices: Bousso

4. U.S. software stocks fall as Anthropic's new AI model

revives disruption fears

5. Carlyle private credit fund bleeds out amid

industry-wide investor exodus

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia lower, with KOSPI -2%; Europe and UK

benchmarks dip ever so slightly; Wall Street's big three rise

0.6% to 0.8%.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rise,

led by consumer discretionary, industrials and comms services.

Energy -1%. Brown-Forman +13%, Amazon +5.6%, Intel +5%, Nike +2%

* FX: Dollar falls for fourth day in a row. AUD, NZD and

NOK biggest G10 gainers, BRL and CLP among the biggest EM

gainers.

* BONDS: European yields retrace only a fraction of

Wednesday's fall, JGB yields inch up towards this week's

multi-decade highs. U.S. yields narrowly mixed, 30-year auction

passes without incident.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil back up towards $100/bbl.

Brent +1%, WTI +3.5%. Physical European, African crude hits

record high. Gold +1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Stagflation nation

Figures on Friday are expected to show annual headline U.S.

CPI inflation last month was 3.3%, up sharply from 2.4% in

February. That would be the highest in nearly two years. Core

goods prices are running hot, and with oil 65% more expensive

than it was a year ago, inflation hitting 4% is more likely than

the Fed's 2% target.

Some of the early March survey data suggest the economy

remains pretty resilient. But incoming hard data isn't that

robust, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 GDP estimate is now down

to 1.3%. Plus, Q4 GDP was revised down on Thursday to 0.5%. Not

great.

* AI disruption fears

U.S. software stocks tumbled on Thursday after Anthropic

held back the wide release of a powerful AI model over concerns

​it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Software

stocks are down 25% this year, against a 4% decline for the

wider tech sector.

Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said

Fund research shows AI could boost productivity by up to 0.8%,

but also affect 60% of all jobs in developed economies. That is

sobering, to put it mildly.

* Income incoming

The Q1 U.S. reporting season kicks into gear next week, and

the outlook is pretty rosy. The LSEG I/B/E/S consensus is for a

14.4% rise in earnings, again led by tech - income is expected

to rise 46%, and if consensus forecasts are met, that would mean

tech accounting for 75% of the overall rise in dollar income.

A lot of optimism is built into these forecasts. The Nasdaq

is back above its pre-war level, and on Thursday clocked its

seventh straight rise, a run not seen since August 2024. But

remember, tech's valuation premium over the broader market has

collapsed to a 7-year low. So maybe the bullishness is

justified?

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Social media posts from Trump

* New Zealand manufacturing PMI (March)

* Taiwan trade (March)

* China PPI, CPI inflation (March)

* Japan wholesale inflation (March)

* South Korea interest rate decision

* Germany inflation (March, final)

* European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos

speaks

* Brazil inflation (March)

* Canada unemployment (March)

* U.S. CPI inflation (March)

* U.S. factory orders (February)

* U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation

expectations (April, prelim)

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