ORLANDO, Florida, June 23 (Reuters) - Global stocks slumped
in a tech-fueled selloff on Tuesday, with investors unnerved by
growing debt-funded AI spending, the prospect of a more hawkish
U.S. rate outlook, and tightening financial conditions from a
stronger dollar and higher U.S. bond yields.
In my column today I look at how investors may struggle with
Fed communications under new chair Kevin Warsh if he adopts the
more opaque messaging of the Alan Greenspan era. The chasm
between Citi and Bank of America's Fed calls suggests the lack
of clear signaling is already playing out.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Chip stocks plunge, but bargain-hunters stem losses in
other tech names
2. SpaceX's wild ride is just getting started
3. U.S. manufacturing rises on front-loading of orders, but
factory employment tumbles to six-year low
4. Iran war triggers global race to build oil reserves:
Bousso
5. Apollo's $26 billion private credit fund imposes 5% cap
on requests to pull 17%
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Japan, China benchmarks -3%. South Korea -10%.
Europe -0.7%. Nasdaq -2.2%, S&P 500 -1.4%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors fall, six rise. Tech
-3.7%, industrials -2%, consumer staples +1.8%. "SOX" chip index
-8%. Nvidia -4%, IBM +5%.
* FX: Dollar index +0.4%, highest in over a year. Euro
$1.1375, lowest in a year. AUD, SEK, NOK all -1%. Hungarian
forint biggest decliner after cenbank cuts rates.
* BONDS: German 10-yr yield lowest close in three months.
U.S. 2-yr yield down 4 bps from yesterday's 16-month high. 2-yr
auction so-so - slight tail, average bid/cover, good direct
demand.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Gold -2%, silver -5% to lowest close
this year. Oil down, Brent -1% for lowest close since Iran war
started, WTI -2%.
Today's Talking Points
* Tech shake, rattle and roll
The global tech shakeout intensified on Tuesday. South
Korea's KOSPI sank 10%, the U.S. "SOX" chip index fell 8%, and
the S&P 500 tech subindex lost 4%. The Nasdaq's 2% decline meant
the index lost almost $1 trillion in value.
Some of this is overdue and perhaps even warranted - the SOX
hit a record high on Monday, having more than doubled in less
than two months. But it's a worry, and fears of bursting bubbles
and market turmoil will intensify if there are too many repeats.
* Oil loses oomph
Oil is down 40% from its Iran war peak, with Brent crude
futures on Tuesday posting their lowest close since the conflict
began in late February. Brent is below $80/bbl and falling, WTI
futures could soon test $70/bbl.
It's a remarkable reversal from well over $100/bbl, and a
welcome one for policymakers. Inflationary pressures are fading,
and oil is close to being the disinflationary force it was for
the whole year before war broke out. On Monday, the year-on-year
change in WTI oil had evaporated to zero.
* 10 years after
Tuesday marked the 10th anniversary of the "Brexit"
referendum in 2016 when Britons voted to leave the European
Union. The country has been grappling with the economic and
political consequences ever since.
Fittingly, the anniversary coincides with yet another
handover of power after Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday
said he will resign. Divisions remain deep, and political and
economic uncertainty runs high. There's no sign of that changing
any time soon, suggesting a higher risk premium in UK assets.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Australia inflation (May)
* Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser
speaks
* Bank of Japan summary of June 15-16 policy meeting
* Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks
* Taiwan industrial production (May)
* Thailand interest rate decision
* Germany Ifo index (June)
* U.S. current account (Q1)
* U.S. Treasury auctions $70 billion of 5-year notes
* U.S. Treasury auctions $28 billion of 2-year floating rate
notes
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