ORLANDO, Florida, April 20 (Reuters) - Oil rose on
Monday and the main U.S. equity indices fell as U.S.-Iran
tensions re-escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was closed,
although the fairly mild market moves suggest investors are
hopeful negotiations will resume and yield positive results.
In my column today, I look at how Big Tech's resurgence
paradoxically puts the AI risks looming over the sector -
including concentration risk and high energy costs - back in the
spotlight.
And before you read on, don't forget to sign up for my
upcoming LSEG webinar on April 23, where I will talk about safe
havens in uncertain times with my ROI colleague Mike Dolan.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Iran considers US talks in Pakistan with blockade
still unresolved
2. Hormuz shipping again near standstill after shots and
seizure
3. Fed nominee Warsh commits to central bank's
independence, with limits
4. EXCLUSIVE-BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates in
April, sources say
5. Investors pile into US stocks as 'TINA' revival
knocks 'TIARA' trades
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Asia in the green, major indices up ~0.5%;
Europe in the red, major indices down ~1%. Wall Street's main
three indices down - Nasdaq breaks 13-day winning streak - but
Russell 2000 up 0.5% to fresh all-time high.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors rise, five fall.
Shares of psychedelic drug developers rally. Apple -1.5% in
after hours trade on news Tim Cook is stepping down as CEO, but
shares recover most losses.
* FX: Dollar dips slightly. CAD, NOK biggest G10 FX
gainers, INR, ZAR among the biggest EM FX decliners.
* BONDS: JGB yields dip, 30-year lowest in 3 weeks;
10-year gilt yield +7 bps; U.S. yields up 2 bps at short end.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil jumps: Brent +5.6%, WTI +6.9%.
But both still comfortably below $100/bbl. Precious metals dip
~1%.
Today's Talking Points
* Beginning of the end?
Yes, oil prices and equity volatility spiked on Monday, and
U.S. stocks fell as hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East
and the Strait of Hormuz re-opening were dashed. But market
resilience to the war and its fallout is strengthening.
If you said at the start of the war it would last at least
eight weeks yet oil would be below $100/bbl, the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq would hit record highs, the VIX would be below 20 and the
10-year Treasury yield would be 4.25%, you might have got a few
odd looks. But here we are.
* It's a Warsh
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, will be grilled by U.S.
senators on Tuesday in his confirmation hearing, the next step
in his journey to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal
Reserve. He is expected to tell lawmakers that he is "committed
to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly
independent."
But President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh, is not so
wedded to the idea of Fed independence, and has repeatedly made
it clear he wants lower interest rates. Warsh will face tough
questions on Tuesday on how he will lead the central bank and
resist any pressure from the White House.
* Tech it to the limit
Last week, it was financials, this week it's tech in the
U.S. earnings spotlight, as IBM, Intel and Tesla release their
latest results. Although the tech-heavy Nasdaq broke a historic
13-day winning streak on Monday, the pullback from Friday's
record high was a paltry 0.3%.
Worries over return on capex, concentration risks, soaring
energy costs and the Mythos security issues are being parked to
one side for now. These three reports this week will be an early
signal as to whether the resurgent optimism around artificial
intelligence is justified.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Energy market moves
* New Zealand CPI inflation (Q1)
* Taiwan export orders (March)
* UK employment (February)
* Germany ZEW investor sentiment index (April)
* U.S. retail sales (March)
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