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TRADING DAY-Cooling off, but still optimistic
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TRADING DAY-Cooling off, but still optimistic
Apr 20, 2026 2:19 PM

ORLANDO, Florida, April 20 (Reuters) - Oil rose on

Monday and the main U.S. equity indices fell as U.S.-Iran

tensions re-escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was closed,

although the fairly mild market moves suggest investors are

hopeful negotiations will resume and yield positive results.

In my column today, I look at how Big Tech's resurgence

paradoxically puts the AI risks looming over the sector -

including concentration risk and high energy costs - back in the

spotlight.

And before you read on, don't forget to sign up for my

upcoming LSEG webinar on April 23, where I will talk about safe

havens in uncertain times with my ROI colleague Mike Dolan.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran considers US talks in Pakistan with blockade

still unresolved

2. Hormuz shipping again near standstill after shots and

seizure

3. Fed nominee Warsh commits to central bank's

independence, with limits

4. EXCLUSIVE-BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates in

April, sources say

5. Investors pile into US stocks as 'TINA' revival

knocks 'TIARA' trades

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia in the green, major indices up ~0.5%;

Europe in the red, major indices down ~1%. Wall Street's main

three indices down - Nasdaq breaks 13-day winning streak - but

Russell 2000 up 0.5% to fresh all-time high.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Six S&P 500 sectors rise, five fall.

Shares of psychedelic drug developers rally. Apple -1.5% in

after hours trade on news Tim Cook is stepping down as CEO, but

shares recover most losses.

* FX: Dollar dips slightly. CAD, NOK biggest G10 FX

gainers, INR, ZAR among the biggest EM FX decliners.

* BONDS: JGB yields dip, 30-year lowest in 3 weeks;

10-year gilt yield +7 bps; U.S. yields up 2 bps at short end.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil jumps: Brent +5.6%, WTI +6.9%.

But both still comfortably below $100/bbl. Precious metals dip

~1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Beginning of the end?

Yes, oil prices and equity volatility spiked on Monday, and

U.S. stocks fell as hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East

and the Strait of Hormuz re-opening were dashed. But market

resilience to the war and its fallout is strengthening.

If you said at the start of the war it would last at least

eight weeks yet oil would be below $100/bbl, the S&P 500 and

Nasdaq would hit record highs, the VIX would be below 20 and the

10-year Treasury yield would be 4.25%, you might have got a few

odd looks. But here we are.

* It's a Warsh

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, will be grilled by U.S.

senators on Tuesday in his confirmation hearing, the next step

in his journey to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal

Reserve. He is expected to tell lawmakers that he is "committed

to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly

independent."

But President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh, is not so

wedded to the idea of Fed independence, and has repeatedly made

it clear he wants lower interest rates. Warsh will face tough

questions on Tuesday on how he will lead the central bank and

resist any pressure from the White House.

* Tech it to the limit

Last week, it was financials, this week it's tech in the

U.S. earnings spotlight, as IBM, Intel and Tesla release their

latest results. Although the tech-heavy Nasdaq broke a historic

13-day winning streak on Monday, the pullback from Friday's

record high was a paltry 0.3%.

Worries over return on capex, concentration risks, soaring

energy costs and the Mythos security issues are being parked to

one side for now. These three reports this week will be an early

signal as to whether the resurgent optimism around artificial

intelligence is justified.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* New Zealand CPI inflation (Q1)

* Taiwan export orders (March)

* UK employment (February)

* Germany ZEW investor sentiment index (April)

* U.S. retail sales (March)

Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday

morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not

reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust

Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom

from bias.

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