NEW YORK (June 30) - TRADING DAY

Making sense of the forces driving global markets

By Lewis Krauskopf, Markets Reporter

Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the

Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what

moved markets.

Today we're closing the books on a turbulent first half of

2025. Trade, which has been the propelling story for markets

this year, was once again a key driver on Monday. I'd love to

hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at .

Today's Key Market Moves

* Stocks built on momentum after hitting records on Friday,

with

the major indexes posting gains to end the second quarter

* The dollar's struggles continued, weakening against the

euro

* U.S. Treasury yields moved lower with investors focused on

economic data and rising expectations of a quicker pace of rate

cuts

* The lower dollar helped gold prices on Monday, with the

precious

metal closing out a huge first half of 2025

* Oil prices edged down but rose for the second

consecutive month

Today's Key Reads

1. Senate Republicans try to get Trump's tax cuts

over the

line, amid party divisions

2. Larger deals power global M&A in H1, bankers

signal

appetite for megadeals

3. U.S. prices for China-made goods on Amazon rise

faster

than inflation

4. Investors flock to Europe as bloc's stability

contrasts

with concerns over U.S.

5. U.S. banks rise as Fed stress test success clears

path

for payouts

Ending first half on a record high note

A tumultuous first half of the year for Wall Street closed

on Monday with stocks on a roll, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq again

minted records.

The two indexes built on gains after ending on Friday at

record highs for the first time in months. The Dow was also in

striking distance of a record peak, closing about 2% from the

blue-chip index's milestone.

As it has for months, trade news continued to be a dominant

theme for markets. The United States said it would resume trade

negotiations with Canada after Ottawa halted plans to begin

collecting a new digital services tax targeting U.S. technology

firms just hours before it was due to start.

The digital levy had caught the ire of President Trump last

week, prompting the U.S. to cancel trade talks with Canada.

Focus was also on a looming July 9 deadline, the end of a

pause on many of Trump's harsher trade tariffs. Treasury

Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries may not get extensions

of that deadline, even if - as he suggested previously - they

are negotiating in good faith.

The dollar continued to struggle on Monday, another theme

for the year so far. The greenback marked its sixth straight

month of losses against a basket of major currencies and the

euro hit its highest level against the dollar in nearly four

years.

Another first-half topic likely not going away anytime soon?

Trump pressuring Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to lower

interest rates. White House reporters were told on Monday that

Trump sent a handwritten note to Powell urging him to ease

rates, the latest complaint the president has levied against the

central bank chief.

To some extent, the pressure may be seeping into markets.

Fed funds futures have indicated investors expect nearly three

cuts this year, more than they did a few weeks ago. Treasury

yields continued their recent descent, with the benchmark

10-year yield around 4.23%.

Elsewhere in Washington, Senate Republicans were trying to

get Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill over the line.

Trump wants his fellow Republicans to get it passed before the

July 4 Independence Day holiday, but there are divisions within

the party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the nation's

debt pile.

Investors also were turning attention to economic data in

the holiday-shortened week, with the monthly U.S. jobs report

due on Thursday.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI (June)

* Euro zone CPI (June)

* Fed chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, other central

bank

governors on panel discussion at ECB forum

* Constellation Brands earnings

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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