ORLANDO, Florida, May 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street fell on
Tuesday, slammed again by inflation worries that pushed
long-dated bond yields to the highest since 2007, as investors
dismissed conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran talks and looked
ahead to Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday.
In my column today, I also look ahead to Nvidia's results.
Another bumper report is expected, but it comes at a potentially
critical juncture for the company and wider sector: if the AI
juggernaut is to slow down, it could be for the oldest of
old-school reasons - rising interest rates.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Warsh's arrival leaves long bonds without a safety
net: Mike Dolan
2. World awaits new Fed Chair's vision on independence
3. EXCLUSIVE-US not in hurry to extend China trade
truce, Bessent says
4. UK finance ministry presses supermarkets to cap food
prices, sources say
5. Nvidia shares set for $350 billion price swing after
earnings, options show
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: South Korea -3.3%, Europe up slightly, UK
basically flat. S&P 500 and Dow -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.8%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Five sectors on the S&P 500 fall, six
rise. Comms services, consumer discretionaries, industrials,
financials down 1% or more, materials -2%. Akamai Technologies
-6% on bond offering, Cisco -3%.
* FX: Yen slips through 159/$, Tokyo cranks up warnings.
India's rupee hits new low for sixth day in a row
* BONDS: 30-year U.S. yield highest since 2007, flirts
with 5.20%. U.S. futures now indicating more than 50% chance of
rate hike this year.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil down ~0.8% as Vance cites Iran
progress, precious metals slide: gold -1%, silver and platinum
-4%.
Today's Talking Points
* Nvidia Day
The world's most valuable company releases its latest
earnings on Wednesday, and it is expected to be another
blockbuster. But after years of near-monopoly in chips used to
train AI systems, Nvidia is facing competition from tech giants
building their own chips. The market is much larger, but also
more contested.
And tens of billions of dollars in revenue is no guarantee
shares immediately rise either. In February, shares tumbled 5.5%
the day after earnings, the biggest drop in 10 months, even as
revenue leaped 94%. A further 4% slide the next day wiped out
$450 billion of market cap in 48 hours. And last November shares
slid 3% the day after results, and 6% in the three days after
the prior earnings report last August 27.
* Rock, meet hard place
Ugly UK jobs data Tuesday, ugly inflation data Wednesday? If
so, the Bank of England is in an even more invidious position
than it might have feared. Raise rates to cap prices, or support
the creaking labor market? Other central banks will be watching
closely - they could find themselves in the same boat soon.
Figures on Tuesday showed UK payrolls fell by 100,000 in
April, the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic. CPI
inflation data on Wednesday is expected to show a sharp rise in
monthly rates but cooling annual gains. BoE officials will be
praying there are no surprises. Not on the upside, anyway.
* Intervention tension
Japan is sounding the FX intervention alarm. Again. Finance
Minister Satsuki Katayama warned at the G7 meeting in Paris that
Tokyo is ready to act, as the yen slides toward 160 per dollar,
which seemed to be the catalyst for Japan wading back into the
market to buy yen on April 30.
Traders will take note and many may reduce long dollar/short
yen positions. But if Japan has spent 10 trillion yen since
April 30 defending the currency, as sources suggest, that's a
lot of money to buy you barely three weeks of breathing room.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Japan Tankan survey (May)
* China interest rate decision
* Indonesia interest rate decision
* Taiwan current account (Q1)
* Taiwan export orders (April)
* Germany producer price inflation (April)
* Euro zone inflation (April, final)
* UK PPI and CPI inflation (April)
* Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies to
Treasury Select Committee, alongside BoE colleagues Sarah
Breeden, Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann
* U.S. Treasury sells $16 billion of 20-year notes at
auction
* U.S. Federal Reserve minutes of April 28-29 policy meeting
* U.S. earnings include Nvidia, Lowe's, Target
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