ORLANDO, Florida, April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks

surged on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq setting a new high and the

S&P 500 a new closing high, as tech and earnings optimism

outweighed Brent crude's return above $100 a barrel and concerns

that peace in the Middle East is proving elusive.

In my column today, I look at why the timely relief for U.S.

consumers from bumper tax refunds will be short-lived - the

boost will be more than offset by the "higher for longer"

gasoline prices sparked by the Iran war.

Before you read on, don't forget to sign up for my upcoming

LSEG webinar on April 23, where I will talk about safe havens in

uncertain times with my ROI colleague Mike Dolan.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump

halts attacks

2. From paint to planes, Iran war lifts costs, darkens

outlooks

3. Iran war may crush oil demand today, but send it

soaring long term: Bousso

4. Warsh's impossible mission - Tame inflation and

please Trump: Mike Dolan

5. Germany halves 2026 growth forecast, raises inflation

outlook amid Iran war

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia mixed, but record highs for Nikkei,

KOSPI. Europe, UK benchmarks dip. Wall Street roars higher - new

high for Nasdaq, new closing high for S&P 500.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Seven of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500

rise, four fall. Tech +2.3%. GE Vernova +14%, Micron Technology

+9%, Boeing +5%. Tesla +4% after Q1 results. United Airlines

-5.5%.

* FX: Dollar up broadly, +0.5% vs Swissie. USD/JPY nears

160.00. Bitcoin +4% to 3-month high, $80,000 in sight.

* BONDS: U.S. curve flattens for a third day. Decent

20-year U.S. auction - above average bid/cover, low primary

dealer take-up.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +3%, Brent back above

$100/bbl.

Today's Talking Points

* Oil back above $100

Brent crude futures are above $100 a barrel, lifted in large

part by unease at the hiatus in direct U.S.-Iran talks. After

three weeks of retreat, Brent is up 12% so far this week and on

track for its second-biggest weekly rise of the war.

The lack of peace talks is worrying. With the conflict about

to enter its third month, Rabobank analysts expect the Strait of

Hormuz to remain closed for up to another four weeks, perhaps

into late May. But the likelihood of escalation to achieve that

de-escalation is very high, "which risks more energy supply

damage." This doesn't seem an unreasonable take.

* Profit warming

Despite the myriad risks - war, energy shock, inflation,

tariffs, Fed independence, breakdown of the global order - stock

markets are buoyant. Why? Money talks, specifically earnings -

as long as the returns are palatable, investors can stomach

nearly anything.

Investors are licking their lips. JPMorgan analysts have

raised their S&P 500 EPS forecast for this year to $330, on

tech/AI optimism rather than an improving geopolitical outlook.

BlackRock is now overweight U.S. stocks for similar reasons.

Who's next to revise up their outlook?

* FX swap shop

The Middle East conflict and disruption to energy supplies

are taking a financial toll on a range of countries, and U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday a number of

U.S. allies in the Gulf region and Asia have requested currency

swap lines from the United States.

Bessent didn't name them, although President Donald Trump

said on Tuesday he is considering a dollar swap line with the

United Arab Emirates. Swap lines give countries access to hard

currency and ease strains on funding and local markets. But

didn't Trump also say last year Gulf countries are going to

invest trillions of dollars in the U.S.?

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* PMIs for Japan, euro zone, UK, U.S. (April, flash)

* South Korea GDP (Q1, advance)

* UK public finances (March)

* European Central Bank publishes account of March policy

meeting

* Canada PPI inflation (March)

* U.S. Treasury auctions $26 billion of 5-year TIPS

* U.S. weekly jobless claims

* U.S. earnings include Intel, American Express, Blackstone

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