ORLANDO, Florida, March 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose
sharply on Wednesday despite a record release of global crude
reserves, stoking inflation fears and lifting two-year Treasury
yields to the highest since September. The weight on stocks was
too much, and Wall Street ended mostly lower.
In my column today I sketch out why structurally higher oil
prices are bad news for U.S. corporate earnings, as businesses
and consumers face far higher direct and indirect energy costs
than they were budgeting for.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Iran tells world 'get ready for $200 a barrel'
2. IEA announces record release of strategic stocks in
response to Iran war oil price surge
3. Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a
gaping supply shock: Bousso
4. US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict
drives up oil prices
5. JPMorgan marks down value of loan portfolios of some
private credit groups, source says
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Japan up 1%-1.5%, a sea of red across Europe -
STOXX 600 index -0.6% - and Wall Street closes mostly lower,
although Nasdaq ekes out negligible gain.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Eight S&P 500 sectors fall, led by
consumer staples -1.3%. Energy +2.5%. Private credit firms
underperform - KKR, Apollo, Blackstone down 2%-3%. Oracle +9%,
Chevron ( CVX ) +3%; Visa, Boeing ( BA ) -1.7%.
* FX: Dollar index +0.4%, dollar/yen nudges 159.00,
highest since January. In emerging markets, THB, ZAR -1%.
* BONDS: U.S. yields jump. Two-year yield highest since
September near 3.65%, 10-year yield highest in a month above
4.22%. Soft 10-year auction, but foreign demand is strong.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil leaps 5%. Silver -3%, leading
precious metals decline, U.S. copper -1%.
Today's Talking Points
* Private credit strains deepen
Worries about the health of the $2 trillion private credit
market continue to deepen. The latest red flags: JPMorgan
reducing the value of some loans to private credit funds, and
reports of Cliffwater's flagship private credit fund capping
redemptions.
Scarce or nonexistent liquidity, opaque pricing, limited
transparency and spiking redemptions - this is how investors are
increasingly viewing the sector. That may not be a wholly fair
assessment, but right now the bar to convincing them otherwise
is getting higher.
* Oil can't get no relief
Oil prices spiked 5% on Wednesday, the same day the
International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million
barrels of reserves in response to the crisis, the largest such
move in its history.
You can look at oil's reaction in two ways. It was
equivalent to 'buy the rumor, sell the fact', as crude plunged
the day before when this move was flagged. Or, it shows supply
fears run much deeper than thought, and we are in for a
sustained period of significantly higher prices.
* Japan FX intervention risks rise
The Japanese yen is weakening rapidly, and is now within
sight of 160 per dollar. It's at levels that prompted the New
York Fed to 'check rates' in dollar/yen in January, seen as a
warning of potential joint U.S.-Japanese intervention to support
the yen.
Tokyo is in a bind though. Safe-haven demand is driving the
dollar higher across the board, and yen sentiment is
particularly bearish because Japan imports 95% of its energy,
which is now much more expensive. Would intervention be
warranted if the 'fundamentals' justify a weaker yen?
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Energy market moves
* India inflation (February)
* Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks
* European Central Bank
* Brazil inflation (February)
* Canada trade (January)
* U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at
auction
* U.S. weekly jobless claims
* U.S. trade (January)
* U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle
Bowman speaks on banking regulation and capital rules
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