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TRADING DAY-Oil and yields up, up, and away
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TRADING DAY-Oil and yields up, up, and away
Mar 11, 2026 2:27 PM

ORLANDO, Florida, March 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose

sharply on Wednesday despite a record release of global crude

reserves, stoking inflation fears and lifting two-year Treasury

yields to the highest since September. The weight on stocks was

too much, and Wall Street ended mostly lower.

In my column today I sketch out why structurally higher oil

prices are bad news for U.S. corporate earnings, as businesses

and consumers face far higher direct and indirect energy costs

than they were budgeting for.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran tells world 'get ready for $200 a barrel'

2. IEA announces record release of strategic stocks in

response to Iran war oil price surge

3. Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a

gaping supply shock: Bousso

4. US consumer inflation steady before Iran conflict

drives up oil prices

5. JPMorgan marks down value of loan portfolios of some

private credit groups, source says

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Japan up 1%-1.5%, a sea of red across Europe -

STOXX 600 index -0.6% - and Wall Street closes mostly lower,

although Nasdaq ekes out negligible gain.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Eight S&P 500 sectors fall, led by

consumer staples -1.3%. Energy +2.5%. Private credit firms

underperform - KKR, Apollo, Blackstone down 2%-3%. Oracle +9%,

Chevron ( CVX ) +3%; Visa, Boeing ( BA ) -1.7%.

* FX: Dollar index +0.4%, dollar/yen nudges 159.00,

highest since January. In emerging markets, THB, ZAR -1%.

* BONDS: U.S. yields jump. Two-year yield highest since

September near 3.65%, 10-year yield highest in a month above

4.22%. Soft 10-year auction, but foreign demand is strong.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil leaps 5%. Silver -3%, leading

precious metals decline, U.S. copper -1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Private credit strains deepen

Worries about the health of the $2 trillion private credit

market continue to deepen. The latest red flags: JPMorgan

reducing the value of some loans to private credit funds, and

reports of Cliffwater's flagship private credit fund capping

redemptions.

Scarce or nonexistent liquidity, opaque pricing, limited

transparency and spiking redemptions - this is how investors are

increasingly viewing the sector. That may not be a wholly fair

assessment, but right now the bar to convincing them otherwise

is getting higher.

* Oil can't get no relief

Oil prices spiked 5% on Wednesday, the same day the

International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million

barrels of reserves in response to the crisis, the largest such

move in its history.

You can look at oil's reaction in two ways. It was

equivalent to 'buy the rumor, sell the fact', as crude plunged

the day before when this move was flagged. Or, it shows supply

fears run much deeper than thought, and we are in for a

sustained period of significantly higher prices.

* Japan FX intervention risks rise

The Japanese yen is weakening rapidly, and is now within

sight of 160 per dollar. It's at levels that prompted the New

York Fed to 'check rates' in dollar/yen in January, seen as a

warning of potential joint U.S.-Japanese intervention to support

the yen.

Tokyo is in a bind though. Safe-haven demand is driving the

dollar higher across the board, and yen sentiment is

particularly bearish because Japan imports 95% of its energy,

which is now much more expensive. Would intervention be

warranted if the 'fundamentals' justify a weaker yen?

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* India inflation (February)

* Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

* European Central Bank

* Brazil inflation (February)

* Canada trade (January)

* U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at

auction

* U.S. weekly jobless claims

* U.S. trade (January)

* U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle

Bowman speaks on banking regulation and capital rules

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morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not

reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust

Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom

from bias.

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