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TRADING DAY-Payrolls surprise, another yen rise
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TRADING DAY-Payrolls surprise, another yen rise
Mar 11, 2026 3:47 AM

ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 11 (Reuters) -

Wall Street wobbled and Treasury yields rose on Wednesday

following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data,

while Japan's yen extended its strong post-election rally for a

third day.

In my column today, I look at U.S. workers' share of GDP,

which has slumped to the lowest on record, and ask whether a

productivity boom might reverse this multi-year trend. In

theory, it could. ​In practice, it's highly unlikely.

If you have more time to read, here ‌are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. U.S. job growth accelerates in January,

unemployment rate falls to 4.3%

2. Software selloff is disrupting some M&A and ⁠IPO

deals,

U.S. bankers say

3. Euro and yuan global ambitions hasten the dollar

drop -

Mike Dolan

4. China makes small dent in deflation battle as

supply-demand imbalance persists

5. EXCLUSIVE-CME looks ⁠into launching first ever

rare earth

futures contract, sources say

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Wall Street's big three indices

little-changed.

UK ‌FTSE 100, Europe, Brazil, MSCI Asia ‌ex-Japan, MSCI World all

hit record highs.

* SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. energy +2.6%, consumer

staples

+1.4%, comms services -1.3%, financials -1.2%. Caterpillar +4%,

IBM -6.5%

* FX: Dollar mostly rises, but not against the

surging yen

or Aussie. Bitcoin -2% below $68,000.

* BONDS: U.S. yields spike as ​much as 6 bps at the

short

end, curve bear flattens. 10-year auction on ‌the soft side.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +2%, gold +2%, silver up

4%.

Comex copper +1%.

Today's Talking Points

* Maybe not so "clueless" after all?

The delayed January U.S. jobs data on Wednesday showed

that the economy created 130,000 new jobs last month, nearly

twice the amount forecast, and ​the unemployment rate eased back

to 4.3%. Earnings growth of 3.7% was ​stronger than expected ‌too.

Putting to one side the annual revisions and issues around

shrinking labor supply, these headline numbers suggest the labor

market is stabilizing and the Fed can afford to stay on pause

for longer. Just as Chair Jerome Powell has indicated. Maybe

he's not ⁠as "clueless" as President Donald Trump would have us

believe?

* It's reigning yen

Japan's currency is on a tear, extending its post-election

rally and ⁠clocking a third daily rise against the dollar of

around 1%. It's on course for a weekly rise of 3%, which would

be the yen's best week since November 2024.

What's interesting about Wednesday's rise is it came while

the dollar was rising more broadly. The yen's immediate test is

152/$ then 148/$, where it was just before Prime Minister Sanae

Takaichi won the LDP leadership contest. Once it's back there,

the political risk premium ⁠has essentially been ‌taken out of its

price.

* AI - end of days or brave new world?

The direction of travel ‌isn't in doubt, but the speed and

ultimate destination are. Assessing, quantifying and predicting

artificial intelligence's transformative powers is dominating

equity markets - we are in the ⁠relatively early stages of the AI

revolution, so divergence, dispersion, and volatility reign.

Among the findings in a Morgan Stanley report this week are:

upward earnings revisions for AI Adopters have outpaced the

AI-Disrupted by ~2x; AI-driven benefits over the next two years

will be heavily skewed toward cost efficiency over revenue

growth; AI adoption expected to benefit 49% of North America

stocks covered, 37% in Asia, 43% in Europe.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Japan wholesale inflation (January)

* Japan earnings including Nissan, Rakuten, SoftBank

* India inflation (January)

* ECB board members Piero Cipollone, Pedro Machado and

Philip Lane

speak at separate events

* UK GDP (Q4, prelim)

* UK trade (December)

* UK industrial production (December)

* U.S. weekly jobless claims

* ​U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds

* Global earnings including Applied Materials, Unilever,

Anheuser-Busch InBev, British American Tobacco, Airbnb

* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include

Governor Stephen Miran (after the market close)

Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday

morning? Sign up for my newsletter ​here.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not

reflect ‌the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust

Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and ​freedom

from bias.

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