ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 11 (Reuters) -
Wall Street wobbled and Treasury yields rose on Wednesday
following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data,
while Japan's yen extended its strong post-election rally for a
third day.
In my column today, I look at U.S. workers' share of GDP,
which has slumped to the lowest on record, and ask whether a
productivity boom might reverse this multi-year trend. In
theory, it could. In practice, it's highly unlikely.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. U.S. job growth accelerates in January,
unemployment rate falls to 4.3%
2. Software selloff is disrupting some M&A and IPO
deals,
U.S. bankers say
3. Euro and yuan global ambitions hasten the dollar
drop -
Mike Dolan
4. China makes small dent in deflation battle as
supply-demand imbalance persists
5. EXCLUSIVE-CME looks into launching first ever
rare earth
futures contract, sources say
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Wall Street's big three indices
little-changed.
UK FTSE 100, Europe, Brazil, MSCI Asia ex-Japan, MSCI World all
hit record highs.
* SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. energy +2.6%, consumer
staples
+1.4%, comms services -1.3%, financials -1.2%. Caterpillar +4%,
IBM -6.5%
* FX: Dollar mostly rises, but not against the
surging yen
or Aussie. Bitcoin -2% below $68,000.
* BONDS: U.S. yields spike as much as 6 bps at the
short
end, curve bear flattens. 10-year auction on the soft side.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +2%, gold +2%, silver up
4%.
Comex copper +1%.
Today's Talking Points
* Maybe not so "clueless" after all?
The delayed January U.S. jobs data on Wednesday showed
that the economy created 130,000 new jobs last month, nearly
twice the amount forecast, and the unemployment rate eased back
to 4.3%. Earnings growth of 3.7% was stronger than expected too.
Putting to one side the annual revisions and issues around
shrinking labor supply, these headline numbers suggest the labor
market is stabilizing and the Fed can afford to stay on pause
for longer. Just as Chair Jerome Powell has indicated. Maybe
he's not as "clueless" as President Donald Trump would have us
believe?
* It's reigning yen
Japan's currency is on a tear, extending its post-election
rally and clocking a third daily rise against the dollar of
around 1%. It's on course for a weekly rise of 3%, which would
be the yen's best week since November 2024.
What's interesting about Wednesday's rise is it came while
the dollar was rising more broadly. The yen's immediate test is
152/$ then 148/$, where it was just before Prime Minister Sanae
Takaichi won the LDP leadership contest. Once it's back there,
the political risk premium has essentially been taken out of its
price.
* AI - end of days or brave new world?
The direction of travel isn't in doubt, but the speed and
ultimate destination are. Assessing, quantifying and predicting
artificial intelligence's transformative powers is dominating
equity markets - we are in the relatively early stages of the AI
revolution, so divergence, dispersion, and volatility reign.
Among the findings in a Morgan Stanley report this week are:
upward earnings revisions for AI Adopters have outpaced the
AI-Disrupted by ~2x; AI-driven benefits over the next two years
will be heavily skewed toward cost efficiency over revenue
growth; AI adoption expected to benefit 49% of North America
stocks covered, 37% in Asia, 43% in Europe.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Japan wholesale inflation (January)
* Japan earnings including Nissan, Rakuten, SoftBank
* India inflation (January)
* ECB board members Piero Cipollone, Pedro Machado and
Philip Lane
speak at separate events
* UK GDP (Q4, prelim)
* UK trade (December)
* UK industrial production (December)
* U.S. weekly jobless claims
* U.S. Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds
* Global earnings including Applied Materials, Unilever,
Anheuser-Busch InBev, British American Tobacco, Airbnb
* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include
Governor Stephen Miran (after the market close)
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