ORLANDO, Florida, March 31 (Reuters) - Wall Street

closed a tumultuous first quarter with a bang on Tuesday as

hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East powered stocks to

their best day in almost a year, even as data showed a slump in

U.S. job openings and hirings.

In my column today I look at the parallels between now and

2021-2022, the last time central banks faced a serious global

supply shock. They acted in unison to tackle inflation then, if

a little belatedly. There's unlikely to be as much cohesion this

time around.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. U.S. says coming days in Iran war will be decisive,

urges Tehran to make a deal

2. U.S. consumer confidence rises, but job openings and

hiring drop sharply

3. Market tightening gives central banks time to wait

and watch: Mike Dolan

4. U.S. banks raising borrowing costs for private credit

funds as AI fears pummel valuations, sources say

5. Oil and war top financial markets worry list for an

uncertain Q2

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia in the red, KOSPI -4.5%. Europe mostly in

the green, and Americas take off - S&P 500 +3%, Nasdaq +4%.

* SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of 11 sectors on the S&P 500

rise. Tech, comms services up over 4%, industrials, consumer

discretionaries up over 3%. Energy -1%. Caterpillar +6%, Nvidia

+5.5%, Boeing +5%.

* FX: Dollar snaps five-day winning streak, -0.6%. AUD

and GBP biggest G10 gainers; HUF, ZAR and BRL all +1.5% or more,

leading emerging FX rally.

* BONDS: Treasuries rally, pushing yields down 4-6 bps

across the curve.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: June crude oil futures -3%, gold

+3%, silver +7%.

Today's Talking Points

* Coiled spring or dangerously complacent?

Tuesday's surge on Wall Street was extraordinary, and not

just because the big three indices had their best day since May

last year. Remarkably, the moves on the S&P 500 and Dow were the

biggest since the Iran war started, meaning they clocked a 2% up

day before a 2% down day.

This can be looked at in a few ways. It shows how keen

investors are for the war to end so they can load up on risky

assets. Or it shows they underestimate the damage already done,

lingering risks even if hostilities cease tomorrow, and the

potential for prolonged conflict. Or, it was just quarter-end

position squaring.

* A quarter for the ages

The first quarter of 2026 closed on Tuesday, and what a

three months it has been. Brent crude had its biggest rise since

the first Gulf War; European LNG rose 80%; the "Mag 7" megacaps

slumped 13%; March was the worst month for world stocks since

September 2022, with $8 trillion market cap lost.

The volatility sparked by the Middle East conflict is summed

up perfectly by South Korea's KOSPI index. It ended the quarter

up 20% but also in a bear market, as its close on Tuesday was

down 20% from February 27 peak, the day before the U.S. and

Israel attacked Iran. Buckle up for Q2!

* U.S. gasoline crosses "psychological" $4

Traders often cite "psychological" price levels in markets

as magnets for activity - round numbers, big numbers, new highs

or lows. On Main Street, the break of big price levels can have

political reverberations, which is happening with U.S. gas

prices right now.

The average price of gasoline is now above $4 per gallon for

the first time since 2022, up 35% since the Iran war started.

This is potentially damaging for President Donald Trump, whose

approval rating is tanking. There's a long way until the

midterms in November, but high and rising gas prices aren't a

vote winner.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Japan, euro zone, UK, U.S. manufacturing PMIs (March)

* Japan tankan survey (Q1)

* Euro zone unemployment (February)

* European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone speaks

* Bank of Canada publishes summary of March policy meeting

* U.S. retail sales (February)

* U.S. ISM manufacturing index (March)

* U.S. ADP employment (March)

* U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include

Governor Michael Barr and St. Louis Fed President Alberto

Musalem

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