ORLANDO, Florida, July 16 (Reuters) - A shakeout in U.S.
semiconductor stocks tanked the tech-heavy Nasdaq on Thursday as
AI jitters spread globally, while solid U.S. economic data
helped lift the dollar and Treasury yields.
In my column today, I look at foreigners' insatiable appetite
for U.S. stocks, which suggests that faith in America's AI story
- the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative - is, for now at least,
alive and well.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. TSMC to invest another $100 billion in U.S. as Q2 profit
blows past forecasts
2. China's Xi to outline AI diplomacy vision at key Shanghai
forum
3. Americans are angry about data centers. Politicians are
feeling the pressure
4. SpaceX selloff an ominous sign as lockup expiry looms
5. Fed flip-flops make case for less talk: Mike Dolan
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: South Korea -7%, Japan -2.8%. Europe and UK little
changed, Wall Street's big three indices slide between 0.2% and
1.5%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. chip index -4%, comms services -3%;
consumer staples +3%. Sandisk -12.5%, Seagate Technology -10%.
Netflix -5% after the bell. Nike +4%.
* FX: Dollar +0.3%, sterling -0.5%, dollar/yen still hugging
40-year highs above 162.00.
* BONDS: U.S. yields up 3 bps at the short end,
bull-flattening the curve.
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil -1%, U.S. natgas hits 2-month low
$2.823/mmBtu, gold -2%, silver -4%.
Today's Talking Points
* Seoul searching
Authorities in South Korea are desperately trying to clamp down
on the volatility sweeping through the country's stock market,
with their latest move on Thursday targeting leveraged,
derivative-based ETFs tied to major technology firms like
Samsung and SK Hynix. Will it work?
Volatility in the KOSPI index has gone through the roof -
30-day realized vol is higher than any point on record apart
from late 1998 around the LTCM crisis and Russian debt default -
and foreign investors are selling at the fastest rate in 25
years. Hold on to your hats.
* Communication breakdown
In monetary policy, the signals central bankers send can often
be as important as the actions they take. Sometimes more so. So
new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's pledge to overhaul the Fed's
communications strategy, effectively towards a "less is more"
approach, is bound to create some degree of uncertainty and
unease for investors.
The Warsh Fed's "reaction function" remains unclear. How
will the Fed react to shifting economic indicators, what will
precipitate that action, and what will that action be? Nobody
knows yet. Meanwhile, it's quiet period for the next two weeks
ahead of the July 28-29 policy meeting. But will officials be so
quiet after that?
* A delicate balancing act
A new Fed paper and U.S. capital flows data this week underscore
just how pivotal AI is to the U.S. economy and markets. The Fed
paper suggests AI-related imports could widen the current
account deficit more than previously thought, while the latest
"TIC" data shows foreign investors continue to pour huge amounts
into U.S. equities as they chase the AI dream.
This is fine, until it's not. Nervousness around the huge
cost of the AI buildout is beginning to ripple through Wall
Street, with the "SOX" chip index down 20% in the past month. If
this continues, or if foreign investors get twitchy, Houston, we
could have a problem.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Global sentiment toward AI, semiconductor stocks
* German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron speak
to reporters
* U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation
expectations (July, prelim)
* U.S. industrial production (June)
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