ORLANDO, Florida, April 21 (Reuters) - Oil and the

dollar rose on Tuesday and U.S. stocks fell, as investors

baulked at signals from Washington and Tehran that peace talks

have not yet been confirmed. This comes a day before the

U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline, which President Donald Trump

extended after markets closed.

In my column today, I look at why China's exchange rate may

not be as chronically undervalued as many analysts say. True,

China's external surpluses are large and widening global

imbalances, but much of this is offset by China's huge financial

account capital outflows.

Before you read on, don't forget to sign up for my upcoming

LSEG webinar on April 23, where I will talk about safe havens in

uncertain times with my ROI colleague Mike Dolan.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I

recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets

today.

1. Iran yet to decide on whether to attend talks as

ceasefire deadline ticks down

2. Warsh says he made no rate-cut promises to Trump,

plans 'robust' Fed reforms

3. Record surge in gasoline receipts boosts U.S. retail

sales, but weakness is looming

4. Can Europe take advantage of its savings buffer over

U.S.?: Mike Dolan

5. EXCLUSIVE-Meta to start capturing employee mouse

movements, keystrokes for AI training data

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: Asia rises. KOSPI rollercoaster in action -

hits new high, now +26% in April, on track for best month since

1998. Europe down ~1%. Wall Street's big three indexes -0.6%.

* SECTORS/SHARES: All but one S&P 500 sectors fall, only

energy up. Six sectors fall 1% or more, energy +1.3%. Airlines

-1.7%, American Airlines -4% for a second day, United -3% after

the bell. Apple -2.5%.

* FX: Dollar up. Euro biggest G10 decliner; CLP, ZAR,

HUF among biggest EM decliners.

* BONDS: JGB yields dip, European yields climb. U.S.

yields +9 bps at short end, delivering biggest curve flattening

in two weeks.

* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil +3%, gold -2%.

Today's Talking Points

* Duel on the Hill

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing was a

contentious affair as he blamed the central bank for the

post-pandemic inflation surge, fended off questions from

senators on Trump's influence over policy decisions, and

refused to directly say that Trump lost the 2020 election.

There could be quite a bit of change afoot at the Fed if

Warsh is confirmed - he called for "regime change" to include a

new "framework" for controlling inflation, and a possible

overhaul of how it communicates with the public. Monetary policy

independence remains "essential" though, Warsh said.

* Trump's art of the ... no deal?

Trump is not one for keeping his views on private sector

businesses or executives to himself. Several CEOs and execs have

come into his line of fire, and share prices have often moved

significantly, in both directions.

On Tuesday, it was the airline sector's turn to be in the

spotlight, as Trump said he opposes a potential merger between

United and American, and also said he would "love somebody to

buy" Spirit Airlines, which is in bankruptcy.

* Apple fluffs

Talking of upheaval, huge news from Apple late Monday that

CEO Tim Cook is stepping down in September to become executive

chairman, and will be succeeded by company veteran John Ternus.

Shares fell 2.5% on Tuesday, the biggest fall in two months,

since just before the Iran war started.

The focus now is what Ternus does on AI. As analysts note,

Apple's press release on his succession didn't mention AI once.

Does this mean Apple will look to embed AI capabilities into

existing devices rather than pursue a single transformative

product? If so, it could be risky in a world in which innovation

is king.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Developments in the Middle East

* Energy market moves

* Japan trade (March)

* South Korea producer price inflation (March)

* Indonesia interest rate decision

* Turkey interest rate decision

* UK PPI, CPI inflation (March)

* Euro zone consumer confidence (April)

* European Central Bank officials scheduled to speak include

President Christine Lagarde, and board members Philip Lane,

Piero Cipollone, Sharon Donnery, and Frank Elderson

* U.S. Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds at

auction

* U.S. earnings on tap include Tesla, Lam Research, GE

Vernova, IBM, AT&T, Texas Instruments, Boeing

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