ORLANDO, Florida, June 4 (Reuters) - Investors on
Thursday latched onto the more encouraging aspects of mixed
signals surrounding an end to war in the Middle East, pushing
stocks higher and oil prices lower. Worries over AI weighed on
tech, but other sectors did the heavy lifting, as attention now
turns to U.S. employment data on Friday.
In my column today, I look at the U.S. labor market ahead of
payrolls. It can hardly be characterized as strong, and some
incoming numbers are warning flags. But overall, the data are
pointing upward, suggesting a corner has been turned.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I
recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets
today.
1. Fed's Warsh inherits economy increasingly squeezed by
inflation
2. First goes the Fed dot, then guidance - and then a
hike?: Mike Dolan
3. Europe's tech 'liberation day'? Computer says not yet
4. Redemption requests rise at Blackstone, Partners
Group as private markets strain
5. China to cut domestic retail gasoline, diesel prices
from June 5
Today's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Dow, Russell 2000 hit record highs. Asia
lower, Europe higher, Brazil -2%.
* SECTORS/SHARES: Only two sectors in the S&P 500 fall:
tech -1.4%, consumer staples -0.1%. Nine rise, led by financials
+2.7%, healthcare +3%. Blackstone +7.5%, Humana +6.8%; Broadcom
-12.6%, Micron Technology -7.7%.
* FX: Dollar dips a bit, USD/JPY hugs 160.00. Bitcoin
-2% to 4-month low
* BONDS: U.S. yields down 2-4 bps, curve steepens:
2s/10s up from Tuesday's 40 bps, flattest since "Liberation
Day".
* COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil -3%.
Today's Talking Points
* Calm and resilient
Wall Street's performance on Thursday was noteworthy. After
opening down more than 1%, the Nasdaq closed flat, and the S&P
500 also posted a percentage point low-to-close rebound. The Dow
didn't bother with the turnaround - it just rose, put on the
afterburners, and closed up 1.7% at a new high.
Investors are buying any dip, almost regardless of the
geopolitical, AI or macro news flow. And why not? Financial
conditions are the loosest in years, and the VIX is around its
lowest levels of the year. Zoom out, and 3-month euro/dollar
implied vol's dip below 5% this week for the first time since
2021 shows how serene markets are. At least on the surface.
* Private chancer
Negative headlines in private credit space are surfacing
again. Investors in Blackstone's flagship $79 billion private
credit fund sought to pull out 10% of shares in Q2, up from 7.9%
in Q1. Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset
manager, capped withdrawals at 5%.
Cliffwater said on Tuesday that investors in its $31 billion
private credit fund tried to redeem 17% of shares in Q2, but
they were also capped at 5%. There have been plenty of similar
examples in recent months, and there are likely to be plenty
more.
* Bit-part player
Bitcoin hit a 4-month low on Thursday around $61,000. It has
lost half its value since peaking above $126,000 in October, and
is down 20% in the past two weeks. The move has snowballed after
Michael Saylor's Strategy, the largest corporate holder of
bitcoin, said it has sold for the first time since 2022.
But some bulls are not losing faith. Geoff Kendrick at
Standard Chartered, one of the most vocal crypto advocates, is
sticking with his call of $100,000 by the end of the year. "When
we look back at the end of 2026 with bitcoin at $100k we will
say this was the buying zone we all wanted," he writes. Watch
this space.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East
* Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman speaks
* Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock
testifies to Senate committee; Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser
speaks at separate event
* Japan household spending (April)
* Taiwan inflation (May)
* South Korea current account (April)
* India interest rate decision
* India GDP (Q1)
* Euro zone GDP (Q1, revised)
* Bank of England officials scheduled to speak include
Governor Andrew Bailey, Swati Dhingra
* Canada PMIs (May)
* Canada employment (May)
* U.S. nonfarm payrolls (May)
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