March 7 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury
yields fell to one-month lows on Thursday after the European
Central Bank (ECB) revised down its inflation projections and
before key U.S. jobs data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also testify before
Congress for a second day after saying on Wednesday that
interest rate cuts are likely in coming months, but only if
warranted by further evidence of falling inflation.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected on
Thursday but acknowledged that inflation is easing faster than
once thought, potentially opening the way for rate cuts later
this year.
That sent European bond yields lower, with markets now
pricing in over 100 basis points rate cuts by the ECB this year.
Treasury yields also fell and "are just following the move
in Europe," said Tom di Galoma, managing director and co-head of
global rates trading at BTIG in New York. "It was kind of a
dovish signal from the ECB."
Investors will next watch Friday's employment report for
February for clues on when the U.S. central bank is likely to
begin cutting rates. It is expected to show that employers added
200,000 jobs during the month.
Unemployment and wage inflation will also be scrutinized. It
will come after unexpectedly strong jobs and inflation reports
for January, which were attributed in part to seasonal factors.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last down 1 basis
points on the day at 4.096%, after earlier reaching 4.054%, the
lowest since Feb. 5.
Two-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.539%.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year
notes narrowed by one basis points to minus 44
basis points.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 73% probability
the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool.