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TREASURIES-Two-year inflation expectations rise to highest since 2022
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TREASURIES-Two-year inflation expectations rise to highest since 2022
Feb 13, 2025 2:19 AM

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Short-term investor

expectations for U.S. inflation hit their highest since 2022 on

Thursday, following a hot read of consumer prices the day before

that put nominal Treasuries under pressure.

The two-year breakeven inflation rate,

which is derived from subtracting the inflation-linked two-year

Treasury yield from that of the nominal two-year note

, rose to as high as 3.338% in London trade, its

highest since the summer of 2022, before subsiding to around

3.16%.

This is well beyond the Federal Reserve's 2% target for

consumer inflation.

U.S. data on Wednesday showed the consumer price index rose

at an annual rate of 3.0% in January, up from 2.9% in December

and above forecasts for a rise of 2.9% year-on-year.

Energy, food and shelter prices all contributed to the

increase. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, also

rose by more than expected.

By Thursday in Europe, two-year Treasuries were down 2 basis

points on the day at 4.342%, having shot up by nearly 10 bps on

Wednesday in their biggest one-day selloff in a month.

Following the CPI data, the futures market was barely

pricing in one 25-bps rate cut this year from the Federal

Reserve this year, compared with around 35 bps worth of cuts

prior to the report.

U.S. President Donald Trump is on the verge of announcing

another round of tariffs, which many believe will contribute to

a sustained rise in inflation, as the price of imports

increases.

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