July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields steadied on
Wednesday after a bond selloff on concerns that higher oil
prices could reignite inflation and prompt additional
interest-rate hikes, with investors also awaiting a sale of
longer-dated government debt.
Two-year yields, which tend to reflect
interest-rate expectations, have risen nearly 9 basis points to
4.26% since Friday, inching toward last week's
17-month high of 4.298%, before a series of tame inflation
reports.
Money markets pricing shows a one-in-five chance of a
quarter-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its July 28-29
meeting, up from around a 10% chance after last week's surprise
soft reports on consumer and producer inflation.
"In a lull of domestic data, market participants' focus has
turned to the potential for a hawkish surprise at the July FOMC
meeting, and market pricing has continued to drift in a more
hawkish direction," Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at
J.P. Morgan wrote in a note.
Oil prices scaled six-week highs on Wednesday, breaking
above $92 a barrel on mounting fears over supply disruption from
the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz as hostilities U.S.-Iran
hostilities escalated.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note hovered
near a two-month high of 4.634%.
The U.S. yield curve has barely moved this week, leaving the
premium of 10-year yields over 2-year steady around
37 basis points.
By contrast, 2-10 spreads elsewhere have steepened sharply,
reflecting the faster rise in shorter-dated yields, as investors
rush to price in a higher chance of rate hikes in the euro zone,
Japan, Britain and Canada, for example.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AUCTION
Attention will shift to the Treasury Department's
$13-billion auction of 20-year bonds later in the day. Yields on
the 20-year bond held near two-months highs at
5.145% ahead of the sale.
The auction can be digested smoothly, given the higher level
of outright yields and less supportive equity valuations,
J.P.Morgan's Barry said. A $21 billion auction in 10-year
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities will take place on
Thursday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was at
2.351%, its highest since April 2025, indicating the market sees
inflation running at about 2.3% in 10 years' time.
(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Amanda
Cooper and Arun Koyyur)