financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff plan puts markets on high alert
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff plan puts markets on high alert
Apr 2, 2025 12:47 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Global investors are close to getting some clarity on the Trump administration's tariff plans on Wednesday, but with little detail on what to expect, financial markets remain on edge.

U.S. President Donald Trump has for weeks pegged April 2 as "Liberation Day", when he plans to impose an array of new tariffs that could upend the global trade system.

Tariffs also have big implications for corporate earnings, global growth, inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Investors had kicked off the year with high hopes for pro-growth policies from the Trump administration but have been spooked by a barrage of tariff-related headlines.

While investors broadly agree that Wednesday's long-awaited announcement could be pivotal for the near-term outlook for global financial markets, they are unsure about which way prices will swing and what will come next as negotiations could be protracted.

"I can't recall a situation where the stakes were this high and yet the outcome was so unpredictable," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. "The devil is going to be in the details and nobody knows the details."

The White House confirmed on Tuesday that Trump will impose new tariffs on Wednesday, without providing details about the size and scope of trade barriers that have businesses, consumers and investors fretting about an intensifying global trade war.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods would take effect once Trump announces them, while a 25% tariff on auto imports will take effect on April 3.

Lack of clarity on whether there will be one flat tariff rate for all imports or whether the administration takes a more fragmented approach has made modeling the ultimate impact of the tariffs on earnings, growth and inflation a daunting challenge.

"Ideally, we just get one number and then we can figure out the downstream impact," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

"But my fear is that we won't get that, or even if we get one number that will be subject to negotiations," he said.

Wednesday's announcement feels particularly crucial after the S&P 500 confirmed a correction, a drop of 10% from a recent high, in mid-March. The index was last down about 8% from its February record high.

"We are at a very tenuous spot, being at the bottom of a corrective trading range ... that leaves us poised for either a very sharp bounce or a scary breakdown," Sosnick said.

Heightened uncertainty over the tariff news and potential market reaction lifted the Cboe Volatility Index - an options-based measure of investor anxiety - to a more than two-week high of 24.80 on Monday. The index finished Tuesday at 22.77.

"I think the market is really holding its breath," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, who expects the so-called fear gauge to climb toward 30, a level associated with a high degree of risk aversion.

Traders in the options market were braced for a roughly 1.3% swing in the S&P 500, on Wednesday.

Tariff woes have pushed Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index to its lowest since September, and taken the edge off a stunning rally in European stocks.

European markets opened broadly lower on Wednesday.

PLAY DEFENSE

The tariffs announcement could also spur sharp moves in the dollar, euro and safe-haven gold.

U.S. manufacturing contracted in March after growing for two straight months, while a measure of inflation at the factory gate jumped to the highest level in nearly three years as anxiety rose over import tariffs, survey data out on Tuesday showed.

Recent tepid consumer spending numbers have raised the specter of lackluster economic growth and higher inflation. That could put the Fed, which paused its easing cycle in January to monitor the impact of tariffs, in an uncomfortable position.

For Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, the risk is that Wednesday's announcement will offer no clarity on tariffs.

"The market to some extent has discounted the cumulative negative effect of tariffs on potential economic growth and corporate profitability," he said.

"The negative reaction in the market would be if the details of those tariffs still leave open a lot of questions about what it includes, who it includes."

Investors flummoxed by the wide range of possible outcomes from Wednesday's news would do well to not put all their eggs in one basket, analysts said.

"The bottom line is in the face of uncertainty that's flirting at levels that we haven't seen since the pandemic or the financial crisis, you need to be diversified," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Spooked by trade tensions, global stocks to deliver tempered gains in 2025: Reuters poll
Spooked by trade tensions, global stocks to deliver tempered gains in 2025: Reuters poll
Nov 27, 2024
BENGALURU (Reuters) - Most major stock markets will fail to even repeat this year's lacklustre performance in 2025 based on the prospect of global trade tensions and a worsening inflation outlook holding back gains, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on its trade partners sent nearly all major indexes into...
Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Edge Down in Wednesday Trading
Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Edge Down in Wednesday Trading
Nov 27, 2024
10:44 AM EST, 11/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Asian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were moving slightly lower Wednesday morning, declining 0.019% to 2,023.73 on the S&P Asia 50 ADR Index. From North Asia, the gainers were led by healthcare platform 111 (YI) and consumer lending firm LexinFintech ( LX ) , which surged 22.7% and 15.7%...
FOREX-Dollar falls ahead of PCE price data, markets weigh Trump tariff vow
FOREX-Dollar falls ahead of PCE price data, markets weigh Trump tariff vow
Nov 27, 2024
(Updates with U.S. midmorning trade) By Alden Bentley and Stefano Rebaudo NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar eased almost across the board on Wednesday as investors waited for inflation data and remained cautious about President-elect Donald Trump's tariff pledges, amid portfolio rebalancing before month end. The dollar came under extra pressure after revised data showing gross domestic...
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks stall, dollar dips as investors assess Trump tariff pledge
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks stall, dollar dips as investors assess Trump tariff pledge
Nov 27, 2024
* Japanese yen strengthens to 5-week high versus dollar * U.S. PCE data due at 1500 GMT * New Zealand dollar rebounds after RBNZ opts for 50 bp rate cut * Oil steadies as market contemplates Lebanon ceasefire impact (Updates at 1340 GMT) By Medha Singh and Kevin Buckland Nov 27 (Reuters) - Global stocks paused and the dollar slipped...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved