04:24 PM EDT, 09/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange surged to another record close Friday, its 16th in the last 21 sessions, with the Bank of Canada now seen likely to cut its key benchmark interest rate again in October to, as National Bank says, "give the faltering economy some breathing room", even as Rosenberg Research is still wary about any "potential red flag".

Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 314.83 points, or 1.05%, to 29,768.36. When the index recorded its first record close of September it was at 28,615.62.

Most sectors were higher, with Base Metals the biggest gainer, up 1%. Energy was the biggest loser, down 2.2%. Reflecting this in commodities, gold had moved higher late afternoon on Friday, following two losing sessions from record highs, even as the dollar and yields rose. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $40.10 to US$3,718.40 per ounce, staying under Tuesday's record high of US$3,725.10.

But West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower, falling for a third day on rising supply while slowing growth cuts into demand. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$62.68 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$66.66.

According to National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor an economic slowdown has convinced the Bank of Canada that inflation risks are now much lower than a few months ago, especially since the government has significantly reduced retaliatory tariffs. National Bank noted the BoC, therefore, resumed lowering interest rates in September, and may do so again in October to "give the faltering economy some breathing room". Subsequently, National Bank added, the BoC will have to adapt its actions to developments in the trade situation, but also to the federal budget in November, which could also stimulate the Canadian economy.

Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research Technical Analysis Consultant Walter Murphy noted the TSX is on pace to make it five weeks straight of posting both a higher weekly high and a higher weekly low. Perhaps more importantly, Murphy also noted, there has only been one week (the week ending August 1) since the April low that the index suffered a lower weekly low. "So," he said, "if the index records a lower weekly low in the weeks immediately ahead, that could be a potential red flag."

With that performance in mind, Murphy noted the TSX's weekly momentum indicator, Coppock Curve, actually peaked in late July and has been flat-lining ever since. As a result, he said, the indicator is on pace to be in a confirmed downtrend in the first part of October. "The resulting bearish bias would likely continue through the fourth quarter. This implies that a coming weekly lower low in the TSX could develop while the Coppock indicator is in the early stages of a multi-month downtrend," Murphy added.

Meanwhile, Murphy noted, the TSX is challenging Fibonacci resistance at 29,378-30,198. A "meaningful" breakout through this range (i.e., above 30,832) would bring 33,800 into view, he said.

With those pending momentum pressures in mind, Murphy said a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 26,673-24,976.

Murphy noted the TSX/S&P 500 relative strength line is challenging its post-2023 downtrend line. He also noted the associated weekly Coppock Curve is on the oversold side of the neutral zero line, but appears to have the time and potential to rally decisively into the positive side of neutral. In turn, Murphy said, this could help the TSX's relative strength line break out through trendline resistance as well as chart resistance at 4.66 (compared to the current 4.44).