04:27 PM EDT, 10/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a small gain Thursday, continuing a recent pattern of fluctuating between up and down days as investors look for positive news from the Canadian government on trade issues, not least those around critical minerals supply deals, while also eyeing a Federal budget coming on Tuesday that is likely to feature an increased fiscal deficit.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 34.20 points to 30,178.98, having dropped nearly 275 points on Wednesday. Sectors were mixed, with gainers including the Battery Metals Index (up 2.2%) and Health Care (up 1.5%), and losers led by Base Metals (down near 1.2%).

On trade, the Canadian Press reported Canada is heading up talks to establish a G7 critical mineral production alliance in what's widely seen as a bid to check China's reign over a supply chain key to everything from wind turbines to fighter jets. It cited Federal energy minister Tim Hodgson saying the critical minerals pact will look at countering market manipulation and price volatility in the sector. The alliance "demonstrates that competitiveness and conscience can, and must, coexist," Hodgson said as he opened two-day talks with G7 energy and environment ministers in Toronto.

Hodgson's statement was tamer his comments two days ago, when he seemed to indicate Canada was close to securing critical-mineral supply deals as he told Reuters in an interview: "We will see this week many examples of us moving beyond talks to firm commitments to fund several types of tools (to secure critical minerals)." He added: "What you will see on Friday is a number of concrete announcements demonstrating that a multilateral approach to securing supply chains and energy supplies works."

Market watchers will be looking to see what is delivered by the government on this front tomorrow.

Beyond this, Prime Minister Mark Carney has already signaled the fiscal deficit will be higher than the last estimates unveiled by the governing Liberals, then under the leadership of Justin Trudeau. Interim parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques said the deficit will rise to nearly $70 billion for this fiscal year.

Of commodities, gold prices had firmed above the US$4,000 mark late afternoon Thursday following the Federal Reserve's rate cut a day earlier, even as the central bank signaled it is likely to pause further easing this year. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $35.20 to $4,035.90 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small gain on optimism around recovering global growth after the United States and China reached a trade deal and the Federal lowered interest rates. WTI crude oil for December delivery closed up $0.09 to settle at US$60.57 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen up $0.09 to US$65.01.