04:13 PM EDT, 08/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight day Friday on weaker commodity prices and as Rosenberg Research sees signs of a "likely move into a confirmed downtrend next week."

Not helped by lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was down a modest 10.5 points to 27,905,49. This comes after the TSX on Thursday fell for the first time in four sessions, including two record closes.

Among sectors, most were higher, led by Health Care, up 4%. None were down by more than 1%.

In terms of the outlook for equities, including those on the TSX, this week's issue of 'Technicals with Dave' from Rosenberg Research focuses on global markets.

In July's comment, Rosenberg noted that since April's low, the TSX index recorded 12-straight weeks with both a higher high and higher low than the preceding week. "Not surprisingly, that pace has moderated a bit, but only slightly," the research said. "Through the end of last week, 16 of the last 17 weeks met that standard, and the exception did post a higher high (but also a lower low). How good is that? As this is written (August 13th), this week is on pace for another higher high and higher low."

However, Rosenberg Research noted, the weekly Coppock Curve, a momentum indicator for identifying long-term buying opportunities in stocks or indices, has peaked and will likely move into a confirmed downtrend next week. It said: "Those pressures are currently expected to persist well into November, but the indicator is not anticipated to fall below its neutral zero line. Similarly, the weekly Coppock already has a bearish bias for most of the index's 11 sectors; these majority pressures will likely continue into October."

According to Rosenberg Research, with those pending momentum pressures in mind, a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, it said, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 25,781-24,424. "The probable strength of that range, together with the Coppock Curve's ability to hold its zero line anytime, would be the setup for a well-contained correction within an uptrend," it added.

Rosenberg Research suggested last month a rally through 27,800 would be the trigger for a decisive breakout. "That has occurred, so we need to keep the next Fibonacci objective of 28,915 in mind," it said.

The research added: "Although the downtrend line displayed on the nearby TSX/S&P 500 relative strength index is drawn from 2023 to present, it has its origins in 2016. The relative index itself has been in a downtrend since 2009. So, we want to keep an eye on both the trendline (currently at 4.47) and the year-to-date high at 4.66 as important resistance areas. A breakout would be a potentially significant bullish relative strength development."

Of commodities, gold was steady late afternoon on Friday as the dollar weakened after a day-prior report showed U.S. wholesale inflation surged last month, failing to dent expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Gold for December delivery was last seen down $0.30 to US$3,383.50 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a 10-week low ahead of a summit meeting between the U.S. and Russia, while China released weak economic data. WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $1.16 to US$62.80 per barrel, the lowest since June 2, while October Brent oil was last seen down $0.88 to US$65.96.