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TSX Closer: Index Falls by 138 Points as February Retail Sales Dip, BoC Cautious on Rate Cuts
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TSX Closer: Index Falls by 138 Points as February Retail Sales Dip, BoC Cautious on Rate Cuts
Apr 24, 2024 1:38 PM

04:18 PM EDT, 04/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX Composite Index on Wednesday closed down 138 points to end the session at 21,873.72 points on broad-based losses as retail sales dipped in February and Bank of Canada minutes showed the central bank remains cautious on lowering interest rates.

Most sectors were lower, though base metals, up 0.411%, energy, up 0.208%, and utilities, up 0.18%, posted positive moves.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Wednesday despite a report showing an unexpected drop in U.S. oil inventories last week, as risk premiums decline.

WTI crude for June delivery closed down US$0.55 to US$82.81 per barrel, while June Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed down US$0.40 to US$88.02.

Gold prices fell early on Wednesday, dropping for a third-straight session as a correction takes hold following Friday's record high.

Gold for June delivery was last seen down US$9.90 to US$2,332.20 per ounce.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Market Commentary with a weekly perspective on current market sentiment noted while gold has grabbed many of the headlines, the prices of other widely used commodities are also on the rise.

"We expect a better economy over the course of next year to lead to higher prices for a wide range of commodities," said Scott Wren, WFII Senior Global Market Strategist.

Of interest today on the economics front, Bank of Canada published an account on the deliberations of its Governing Council, leading to the monetary policy decision on April 10.

Perhaps of most interest to market watchers, the BoC's account said: "While there was a diversity of views about when conditions would likely warrant cutting the policy rate, they agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target."

Canadian monetary policymakers, Desjardins noted, want to see more of the same before they begin reducing rates. According to the summary of their deliberations ahead of the April rate decision, officials agreed that they had seen the further easing in core inflation they had been looking for.

However, policymakers ultimately concluded that they needed to see that progress sustained for a period of time before entering into a rate cutting cycle.

Members of the Governing Council were split on when such conditions would materialize. A pickup in GDP growth during the first quarter had some officials seeing less downside risk to the economy.

That said, others apparently placed more emphasis on the slowdown in inflation in concluding that the timing of rate cuts could come sooner rather than later.

In terms of Canadian economics news, the focus was on Canadian retail sales for February, and the March advance number.

CIBC noted Canadian retail sales retreated further in February, as Canadians are "becoming more cautious about spending as mortgages come up for renewal." It noted the 0.1% decline in nominal sales was below the consensus expectation of +0.1%, and sales were down in five of nine subsectors, led by gasoline, and in seven provinces.

CIBC said "things didn't look any better in volume terms," as real sales dropped off by 0.3%, but volumes were flat in the ex. auto/gasoline group.

"Overall," CIBC added, "this report highlights the weak consumer backdrop in Canada, following a boost to sales volumes at the start of the year from warmer than normal winter weather, and we continue to expect a June rate cut from the Bank of Canada."

Of note elsewhere, BMO Economics (after looking at U.S. durable goods orders for March) noted manufacturing activity is "still holding up" despite elevated interest rates. Durable goods orders climbed again in March, while the ISM reported (earlier in the month) that manufacturing activity expanded for the first time since 2022.

BMO said this will not give "confidence" for the Fed to cut rates any time soon, though it added tomorrow's GDP report and Friday's PCE figures will be key.

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