04:25 PM EST, 03/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange ended a volatile week with a gain on hopes U.S. President Donald Trump's day-prior decision to ease 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2 signals a he may be poised to end to his trade war on the two largest U.S. trading partners

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 174.72 points to 24,758.76. Most sectors were higher, led by Energy, up 2.3%, Utilities, up 1.5% and Telecoms, up 1.3%. The Battery Metals Index, down 1.3% and Base Metals, down 0.6%, were lower.

However gains among hopeful investors may have been capped after Trump today spoke out against high Canadian tariffs on dairy and lumber and said his administration could impose reciprocal tariffs on Canadian products as early as Friday. Also, in another sign that a trade war between the North America neighbors may not end soon, the Canadian federal government announced a $6.5 billion aid package for businesses hit by the trade war, which only began last Tuesday.

Robert Embree, senior economist at Rosenberg Research said today a "soft" Canadian employment report sets the stage for next week's Bank of Canada meeting, with a rate cut and future easing highly likely. Canada's Labour Force Survey surprised to the downside with a big miss, with employment up just 1,100 jobs, below consensus for a rise of 20,000, which was already on the low side. Embree said this confirms the weak labor market picture, with the lowest job creation number since July, 2024, and reinforces the BoC's easing bias, supporting a rate cut next week and beyond.

BoC rate-cut odds for next week's meeting have gone from 50% last week, to 76% yesterday, to 85% now. "Indeed," Embree added, "without wholesale trade hiring effects ahead of possible tariffs, the report would have shown an outright decline. This reverses the fairly strong employment picture we saw in Q4 and is consistent with tariff uncertainty tipping Canada's growth downward."

Meanwhile, Macquarie has maintained its call that the Federal Reserve's policy committee will hold rate cuts in 2025, despite softening labor market in the United States.. "Overall, there remains resiliency in trend hiring and core inflation is likely to remain firm, with tariff implementation a contributing factor."

Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher following reports Russia's oil minister said OPEC+ may pause the return of 2.2-million barrels of daily production cuts to the market following the initial April tranche. WTI crude oil for April delivery closed up $0.68 to settle at US$67.04, while May Brent crude was last seen up $1.06 to US$70.52.

Gold prices moved lower by late afternoon on Friday even as the dollar fell to a four-month low after the United States reported a smaller than expected rise in employment last month. Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$7.60 to US$2,919.00 per ounce.

But this week's issue of 'Technicals with Dave' from Rosenberg Research is focused on gold's short, medium, long, and cyclical term outlook as well as the gold miners. It said: "We have long been bullish on gold and, by extension, the mining stocks. We are fast approaching our US$3,000 price objective, though the gold price has been in consolidation mode as of late. We are receiving questions about what to do once we do get to $3,000 per ounce and are working on a new thematic report on the outlook."

"For those who did not participate in the latest leg of the bull market, no need to fret -- the longer-range outlook remains very constructive," it added.