04:16 PM EDT, 09/08/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Monday, failing for only the second time in the last 12 sessions to close at a record high, with today's losses coming on some profit taking, but also as Rosenberg Research in its latest 'Strategizer', a monthly guidebook for active investors, said the Canadian equity model had hit a fresh four-year low.

Even with commodity prices higher, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 22.90 points to 29,027.73, with sectors mixed. Industrials was the only sector to lose more than 1%, while the Battery Metals Index was the only one to gain more than 1%.

Of commodities, gold traded at a fresh record high late afternoon on Monday as the dollar weakened and investors anticipate a cut to U.S. interest rates next week. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $22.70 to US$3,676.00 per ounce, topping Friday's record close of US$3,653.10.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, a day after OPEC+ announced a smaller than expected production hike for October. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $0.39 to settle at US$62.26 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.43 to US$65.93.

On sectors, Rosenberg Research noted Strategizer's Canadian equity model score fell for the fourth month in a row, down to 21.9 from 24.6 while shifting further into "underweight" territory as a result, and to a four-year low. It said investors have pushed the TSX to new record heights thanks to momentum from the Gold Miners and Banks, accounting for a combined 63% of the benchmark's year to date gains. Both valuations (80th percentile) and technicals (90th percentile) are now "at extremes" as a result, it added. "Such momentum can always continue in the near-term (Materials and Financials remain two of its model's top sector picks), but long-term investors sitting on large gains may wish to consider taking some profits, rebalancing towards allocation targets as needed."

At the sector level, Rosenberg Research said its Canadian equity model keeps Financials (#1) and Materials (#3) in the top rankings from last month, as well as Real Estate at #4. The only change was the rise of Health Care to #2, replacing Energy, now #5, to round out the top sector picks.

Meanwhile, Strategizer's commodity model ticked higher to 57.2 in August from 56.0 in July, remaining in the upper-half of "neutral" where it has been for the better part of the past year. "As such," the research said, "there is little in the way of new developments. The outlook is caught between depressed fundamentals, as reflected in a loose supply-demand backdrop, that is mirrored (properly) by historically cheap valuations (especially compared to financial assets like stocks) and a lack of ownership in investor portfolios. Thus, there remains a risk of a "positive" surprise relative to expectations."

In terms of individual commodities at the top of Strategizer's rankings, aluminum (#1), RBOB gasoline (#2), wheat (#3), sugar (#4), and cotton (#5) round out the list. WTI crude fell to the middle (#7 from #4), "reflective of a deteriorating backdrop with risks of oversupply in the second half of the year on the rise". Rosenberg Research said its gold model experienced a decline to 19.4 from 26.8, led by a jump in investor sentiment (contrarian negative) with prices breaking out to new record highs as August drew to a close. "While long-term bullish on the yellow metal, our model is flagging the increasing need to actively manage position sizes, emphasizing risk-management for any pullbacks along the way (positioning is getting crowded on the long side). Fair to say, however, that any meaningful dips that materialize should be bought," it added.