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TSX Closer: The Index Moves Higher; RBC Talks Canada Job Market, Rate Cuts Amid Trade Volatility
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TSX Closer: The Index Moves Higher; RBC Talks Canada Job Market, Rate Cuts Amid Trade Volatility
Jul 16, 2025 1:19 PM

04:11 PM EDT, 07/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose nearly 100 points as Canada reportedly looks to implement new measures to support its steel industry in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade disputes.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 98.83 points to close at 27,152.97. Information Technology and Financial were the biggest gainers, rising 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, while Energy was bottom of the list, down 2.9%.

RBC economist Rachel Battaglia, in her insight report about Canada's job market, said that recent trade tensions have made existing weaknesses in Canada's labor market worse. After briefly improving in late 2024 and early 2025, the unemployment rate is rising again, while job vacancies continue to fall. Although June showed a small improvement from May, it's unlikely the jobless rate has peaked yet, she added.

This trend isn't new. Unemployment has been increasing for nearly three years, however, the factors behind today's job market are quite different. After the pandemic, unemployment mostly reflected challenges new workers, like recent graduates and newcomers, faced in finding jobs. Now, while permanent layoffs haven't jumped much compared to a year ago, people are taking longer to find work. There are also clearer signs of job losses in industries that depend on international trade, Battaglia said.

"Manufacturing, primary resources, transportation and warehousing, and certain services outside of public administration1 have borne the brunt of recent employment declines. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy appears to be driving much of the weakness, but other factors like fluctuating commodity prices and a slowdown in homebuilding are likely intensifying these challenges," she said.

Economic uncertainty is pushing some retirees back into the job market, as unstable stock markets are causing financial stress, especially for those on fixed incomes. This trend is reflected in the recent rise in job searches by people aged 55 and older who had recently retired, the report added.

Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said, "Canada has demonstrated surprising economic resilience" with job and housing markets stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to tariff risks. Fiscal support is also expected to continue. With core inflation staying close to 3%, RBC believes the Bank of Canada has likely ended its rate cuts at 2.75%.

In the United States, ongoing trade uncertainty, a surprisingly steady job market, and a cautious Federal Reserve have led RBC to push its forecast for the first interest rate cut to December, with rates gradually falling to 3% by mid-2026, he added.

While neither central bank is expected to change rates in the near term, future Fed cuts could lead to a wider interest rate gap between Canada and the US in the coming months, Daw said.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped for a third session on Wednesday, even as a report showed U.S. inventories fell last week. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.14 to settle at US$65.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.02 to US$68.69.

Gold traded higher late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices remained steady last month. Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$18.10 to US$3,354.80 per ounce.

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