04:20 PM EST, 11/03/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a third-straight session on Monday, posting a modest gain as market watchers, while awaiting a fiscal update from the Canadian federal government tomorrow that is expected to highlight a big budget deficit, also digested a wide range of trade related news items that could help determine the outlook for the domestic economy.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 14.32 points to 30,275.06. Sectors were mixed. Base Metals led decliners, down near 1.7%, with no other sector down as much as 1%, while no sector rose more than 0.6%.

On the long-awaited federal budget, The Canadian Press noted Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said while there will be "no surprises" when he tables it Tuesday afternoon, he promises it will offer "generational investments." The report noted the government said this budget, Prime Minister Mark Carney's first, is "built around boosting investment in Canada and shifting trade away from an increasingly protectionist U.S. under President Donald Trump." It also noted Carney's minority government will need the support or abstention of some opposition MPs to pass the budget bill and avoid an early election. The government is three votes shy of being able to pass the budget on its own. The Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and NDP have stated publicly what they want to see in the budget in exchange for their support. CBC News noted Prime Minister Mark Carney says he's '100%' confident in his first budget and is prepared to defend it in an election if it doesn't pass.

Meanwhile, a CTV News report noted interim parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques in an interview with CTV Question Period in late September, said the federal deficit was expected to rise to $68.5 billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year. It noted the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD) predicts that to be higher, between $75 and $90 billion.

Sahir Khan, a former assistant parliamentary budget officer, who's also vice-president of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, told CTV News Channel Sunday says he'll be watching to see whether the Liberal government prioritizes capital investment, including infrastructure, housing and other long-term projects, over short-term spending.

In trade specific news, BMO Capital Markets noted the federal government announced the first round of critical minerals projects set to benefit from the G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance. Six companies received federal support, spanning graphite, rare earths, and scandium. The first round of support included mostly offtake agreements and some non-binding letters of intent.

BMO said it remains optimistic the next round of investments, expected in March, will include more project financing support for advanced critical mineral developers. It believes that the next round of federal support announcements could target Canadian lithium projects. Within its coverage, BMO flags the PMET Resources' ( PMETF ) Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec and Frontier Lithium's ( LITOF ) PAK project in Ontario as potential beneficiaries due to their scale and potential to represent cornerstone assets in each province.

Meanwhile, a report on the BNN Bloomberg website noted Ontario Premier Doug Ford says Prime Minister Mark Carney asked him several times to pull an anti-tariff ad that angered U.S. President Donald Trump, though he has "a different recollection" from the prime minister of the conversation they had before the ad ran. "He called me from Asia a couple of times and said, 'pull the ad' and I said I wasn't going to do it until we paused the ad on Monday. And that's exactly what we did," Ford said.

The report noted the ad featured a clip of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan talking about the economic drawbacks of tariffs. Trump cut off trade talks with Canada in response, and threatened to add an extra 10% tariff on Canadian goods. It also noted that several days after Ford said Carney saw the ad before it ran, the prime minister admitted that he had, telling reporters at a press conference in South Korea over the weekend that he told Ford he didn't think the province should run the ad. He also said he'd apologized to Trump over the ad.

With a similar theme, CBC News noted that following a forestry summit with federal Minister responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade, Dominic LeBlanc, British Columbia Premier David Eby said his province will not run anti-tariff ads on its own, as it had planned. He said when the time comes to speak to Americans, it will be in partnership with the federal government.

In other trade related news, Industry Minister Melanie Joly says the federal government is launching a dispute resolution process against Stellantis for moving planned vehicle production from its Brampton, Ont. plant out of the country, The Canadian Press reported. It noted Joly told a parliamentary committee this morning the formal, 30-day process is aimed at recovering Canadian taxpayer money and returning production to the Brampton facility. Joly said the process is underpinned by government contracts with the carmaker and will be initiated by the end of the business day. She met with autoworkers in Brampton last week and added the company must be held accountable for breaking its promises.

Meanwhile, Canada and Pakistan have agreed to facilitate the export of Canadian canola to the South Asian nation, the countries said in a joint statement on Monday, as reported by Reuters. It noted Canada has been looking to open new markets for the commodity after China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after Canada said it would levy a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

Of commodities, gold prices were up on Monday, pushing back above US$4,000 despite a higher dollar, even as they have continued to trade in a tight range since Oct. 20's record high of US$4,359.40. Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$25.50 to US$4,022.00 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a minor gain as OPEC+ on the weekend said it will again boost monthly production by 137,000 barrels per day on Dec. 1, while announcing it will pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for December delivery closed up $0.07 to settle at $61.05 per barrel, while January Brent oil was last seen up $0.10 to $64.87.