04:18 PM EST, 01/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose to a fresh record high on Thursday, rising for a third-straight session as tech issues continue to rebound from Monday's surprise DeepSeek-driven dive, even as Donald Trump threatens to impose 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 334.95 points to 25,808.25, topping the previous record of 25,468.49 set last Friday. Among sectors, Technology, up 3.45%, and Health Care, up 2.6%, led gains.

Investors are largely ignoring the threat of a potential trade war with the United States, even as the impact of tariffs continued to occupy the minds of many market participants. S&P Global Ratings economists have estimated which sectors would be the most vulnerable to President Trump's promised 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada which could be imposed as soon as Saturday, a threat he repeated on Thursday.

"For our scenario, we focused on output at risk, which is the potential decline in output of a given sector from a tariff-induced demand loss," said Chief Economist Elijah Oliveros-Rosen. Based on global input-output tables, S&P added, output from the auto and electrical equipment sectors is most exposed to a tariff shock in Mexico, while commodity-related processing sectors have the largest exposure in Canada.

"For the U.S., we estimate a much smaller output at risk if its direct neighbors were to impose in-kind tariffs, but the most exposed sectors would be agriculture and fishing, metals, and autos," said Oliveros-Rosen. Several factors could cushion the declines in output, such as exchange rate movements, availability of substitutes, and the willingness of producers to absorb the higher cost associated with tariffs, S&P noted.

For their part, Warren Lovely and Ethan Currie at National Bank noted the threat of U.S. tariffs hangs over Canada, with Feb.1 the date most everyone has circled on the calendar north of the border. "Until then (and perhaps beyond), downside risk assessment remains the name of the game," they said.

"There's much guesswork surrounding the potential fallout from a U.S.-Canada trade war," the National Bank economists said. "Let's concede that the precise nature of the GDP, employment and inflation impacts hinge on the magnitude, scope and persistence of any tariff hit. By the same token, the extent and nature of prospective retaliation matters much, as does the degree to which relief is rushed to consumers and affected workers/sectors. The appropriate monetary policy response is also open to interpretation. All this implies a wide range of potential economic outcomes/impacts."

Near the end of their note, Lovely and Currie noted that even if a trade war is avoided, fiscal pressures on Canadian governments could nonetheless mount.

Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate closed with a small gain despite the tariffs threat. WTI crude oil for March delivery closed $0.11 to settle at US$72.73 per barrel, while March Brent oil closed up $0.29 to US$76.87.

Gold traded at a record high late afternoon as the dollar weakened after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded at a slower than expected pace in the fourth quarter. Gold for April delivery was last seen up $56.20 to US$2.849.70 per ounce, topping Friday's record close of US$2,806.60.