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TSX Closer: The Index Posts Another Record Close of the Week; Rosenberg Touts a Sector-Rotation Strategy
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TSX Closer: The Index Posts Another Record Close of the Week; Rosenberg Touts a Sector-Rotation Strategy
Jun 26, 2025 1:54 PM

04:29 PM EDT, 06/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its second record close of the week amid scant signs investor interest in Canadian stocks is slowing.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index put yesterday's dip behind it and closed up 185.63 points, or 0.7%, to 26,751.95, beating the proir record close of 26,718.62 on Tuesday. Most sectors were higher Thursday, with Base Metals, up 5%, posting the biggest gain on the day. No other sector was up even by as much as 1%, while no sector fell by as much 1% either.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX went into Thursday's session up near 6% from the Jan.20 U.S. Inauguration Day close of 25067.92. It was also up 1.5% month to date, and 7.4% year to date heading in to today.

Canadian investors have largely ignored market noise around a potential global trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to post a series of record closing highs this year and it can be assumed that they are keen on investment ideas.

Just as a source of information and potential ideas for stock pickers, and not as a promotion for Rosenberg Research, MT Newswires Canada notes Market Strategist Marius Jongstra published a note showcasing a sector rotation investing strategy based on its monthly 'Strategizer' report.

Available as part of both U.S. and Canadian equity models, Jongstra said Rosenberg Research sector rankings can be deployed in a portfolio either as a source of idea generation for bottom-up stock pickers or via a rotation model using existing ETFs. He identifies two strategies that can be followed depending on how active an investor wishes to be, either by creating an equal-weighted portfolio of its top picks rebalanced monthly, or by simply doing the same at the beginning of each year and holding for 12 months.

Jongstra noted the first approach is "much more active". Rosenberg Research take its top sector rankings (it split its list in thirds, making the "top" ranks the first four sectors, including ties) and creates an equally weighted portfolio at the beginning of each month (25% in each; less if there are ties). This process is repeated every month, rebalancing accordingly based on how the top picks shift with the latest monthly update.

Since launch at the end of 2020, this strategy, as of the end of May, would have generated a cumulative price return of 77% based on the Rosenberg Research U.S. picks, compared to 63% for the S&P 500, and 65% in Canada, against 52% for the TSX, Jongstra said.

Rosenberg Research awaits finalized monthly performance for June, but Jongstra said it entered the month with Communication Services, Utilities, Health Care, and Financials as the top picks in the U.S. With Canada, it was Materials, Industrials/Financials (tied), and Health Care/Communication Services (tied). Jongstra noted the month to date performances have been +1.2% and +2.1%, respectively, compared to the +3.2% and +2.0% advance in the S&P 500 and TSX.

"For this strategy to work, it requires a dedicated amount of time to shifting the portfolio positions and will incur trading costs and taxes (if in a taxable account). These are all considerations worth mentioning," Jongstra added.

Jongstra said those not inclined to continually rebalance the portfolio on a monthly basis can take a "less active approach". He asked: "Strategizer's premise is based on evaluating risk/reward on a forward 12-month basis ... so why not just buy the top-ranked sectors and hold them for a given year?" He presented the results of doing so at the beginning of each year, based on the first report published in January.

With four full years of data on hand, Jongstra said the cumulative gain from simply creating an equal-weighted portfolio at the beginning of each year and rebalancing annually would have come in at 76.4% for the S&P 500 sector picks and 54.3% for the TSX.

Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday, rising for a second day on signs of solid U.S. summer demand and a falling dollar while the market is eyeing coming supply hikes from OPEC+. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$65.24 per barrel, while August Brent crude was down US$0.14 to US$67.54.

Gold edged higher late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar fell to the lowest in more than three years on expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates this year despite concerns over the central bank's independence amid attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $1.50 to US$3,344.60 per ounce.

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