04:37 PM EDT, 03/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday recovered ground lost over the prior three sessions, taking the index back in to positive territory for 2026 to date, as U.S. President Donald Trump at least raised the possibility of an end to the Middle East war.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up by 566.4 points, or 1.8%, to 32,883.81, even with commodity prices lower and with National Bank saying while the index here has been "proving more resilient" than the S&P 500, it is still recalibrating its asset mix this month by moving exposure back into cash.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet, the TSX went in to today down 8.8% month-to-date and year-to-date down 395.35 points or 1.25%.

Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 10% on Monday as the market welcomed a stand down on U.S. threats to attack Iran's power and oil infrastructure. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down US$10.10 to settle at US$88.13 per barrel, while May Brent oil was down US$13.28 to US$98.91.

Gold continued its descent on Monday, falling for a fourth-straight session even as the dollar and yields eased as the precious metal shed its safe-haven status with the war on Iran threatening to raise inflation and interest rates. Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$169.60 to US$4,440.00 per ounce.

National Bank published its Monthly Equity Monitor for March in which it said the S&P/TSX was "proving more resilient" than the S&P 500, with the index here down just 1.2% year to date as of March 20. In comparison the S&P 500 was down 5.0% year-to-date, a decline broadly similar to that seen in early 2022. National Bank noted that outperformance echoes the pattern seen in 2022, when the TSX fell 8.7% over 12 months versus 19.4% for the S&P 500, largely owing to its heavier commodity exposure and lighter technology weighting.

In 2026, the bank said, that same composition is once again working in Canada's favor. On the energy side, the bank noted, valuations in the S&P/TSX Energy sector have climbed to 24 times forward earnings, well above the roughly 10-times average seen in 2022-2023. Canadian energy stocks are now trading at roughly a 20% premium to their U.S. counterparts for the first time in over a decade, it added.

Still, the bank is recalibrating its asset mix this month by "fully unwinding last month's risk addition", moving the exposure added to Europe and emerging markets back into cash. The escalation in the Iran war has materially increased downside risks to global growth and, in the IEA's words, is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, the bank said. "History offers little comfort here: major oil shocks have typically coincided with S&P 500 bear markets, even if oil alone was not the sole cause," it added.